Florida State Seminoles

Men's · Atlantic Coast Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Troy · Fri 6 Nov, 7 PM ET

Troy4%96%Florida St

Projected 86-65 · Game page

Makes the tournament30%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 8.2

Wins the national title<1%Final Four <1% · projected 21-13

Net rating+14.3Rank 54 of 365 · offence 46, defence 64

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 21-13 (16 to 25 wins)
Projected conference record: 10-8
Wins or shares the conference title: 1%
Wins the conference tournament: 2%
Average seed if in the field: 8.2
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field30%
Round of 3215%
Sweet 164%
Elite Eight1%
Final Four<1%
Title game<1%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Florida A&Mrank 355	Neutral	95%	79-59	W 112-69	Right
Fri 6 Nov7 PM ET	vs Troyrank 195	Home	96%	86-65	—
Tue 10 Nov6 PM ET	vs Floridarank 2	Home	18%	74-85	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 30% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs TroyA win: 30% · a loss: 29%+2 pts
Tue 10 Nov: vs FloridaA win: 39% · a loss: 29%+10 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Sebastian RancikF · transfer from Colorado	1	27.0	25.0	4.0	2.0	+4.5	+3.2
Anthony Robinson IIG · transfer from Missouri	1	26.0	16.0	8.0	4.0	+4.0	+2.9
Kam TaylorG · transfer from UNC Asheville	1	26.0	15.0	5.0	4.0	+3.0	+2.4
Shon AbaevF · transfer from Cincinnati	1	24.0	6.0	4.0	6.0	+3.9	+2.6
Marcis PonderC	1	20.0	15.0	11.0	0.0	+0.6	+1.0
Cooper SchwiegerF · transfer from Wake Forest	1	16.0	6.0	2.0	0.0	+2.7	+1.4
Brandon Bass Jr.G	1	15.0	13.0	1.0	0.0	+0.7	+0.8
Alex SteenF	1	15.0	6.0	7.0	0.0	+5.6	+2.1
Martay BarnesG	1	14.0	10.0	0.0	0.0	+0.7	+0.7
Elise AssuiG	1	12.0	0.0	2.0	1.0	+0.8	+0.6
JD JonesG	1	2.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	+1.1	+0.1
Amare RobinsonG	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+1.1	+0.1
Jalen CrawfordG	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+2.2	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	52.3%rank 31	49.8%rank 95	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	16.8%rank 7	19.1%rank 66	18.5%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	33.2%rank 48	29.7%rank 19	31.8%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	27.4%rank 40	24.0%rank 72	25.3%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.9 expected (+0.1)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −3.9 points a game (they shot 37.0%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −0.6 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +8.8
Last season's net rating: +12.1
Last season's minutes returning: 16%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +4.5
Change since preseason: +5.6

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 114.0 (rank 46)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 99.7 (rank 64)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 73.0 (rank 25)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −22.0 (rank 282)

Atlantic Coast Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Duke	1-0	0-0	+33.5	122.0	88.5	1
2	Louisville	1-0	0-0	+22.2	116.7	94.5	17
3	Virginia	1-0	0-0	+20.2	115.1	94.9	28
4	Miami	0-1	0-0	+20.1	116.1	96.0	31
5	North Carolina	1-0	0-0	+15.6	113.8	98.2	44
6	Clemson	1-0	0-0	+14.6	114.5	99.8	53
7	Florida State	1-0	0-0	+14.3	114.0	99.7	54
8	Notre Dame	1-0	0-0	+13.2	111.8	98.5	58
9	NC State	1-0	0-0	+12.7	112.6	99.9	62
10	Syracuse	1-0	0-0	+11.1	111.5	100.5	67
11	SMU	1-0	0-0	+10.6	111.0	100.3	72
12	Stanford	1-0	0-0	+10.2	111.5	101.3	75
13	Virginia Tech	1-0	0-0	+9.6	109.1	99.5	77
14	Pittsburgh	1-0	0-0	+7.6	108.0	100.4	86
15	Georgia Tech	1-0	0-0	+7.6	106.2	98.6	87
16	Wake Forest	1-1	0-0	+6.8	107.1	100.3	94
17	California	2-0	0-0	+4.5	107.2	102.7	106
18	Boston College	1-0	0-0	+3.9	105.5	101.6	110