Florida A&M Rattlers
Makes the tournament2%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.9
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 10-24
Net rating−22.0Rank 354 of 365 · offence 340, defence 360
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 10-24 (5 to 15 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 7-11
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 1%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 2%
- Average seed if in the field
- 15.9
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field2%
- Round of 320%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Florida Staterank 56 | Neutral | 5% | 59-79 | L 69-112 | Right |
| Thu 5 Nov | vs Fort Valley Statenot Division I | Home | — | — | L 70-75 | |
| Mon 9 Nov7:30 PM ET | at UABrank 171 | Away | 6% | 69-88 | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov12 PM ET | vs Kansas Cityrank 305 | Neutral | 29% | 71-78 | — |
Rooting guide
- Mon 9 Nov: at UABA win: 1% · a loss: 1%0 pts
- Wed 11 Nov: vs Kansas CityA win: 1% · a loss: 1%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaden KempsonG · transfer from UAlbany | 2 | 34.5 | 24.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | −4.9 | −1.8 |
| Antonio Baker Jr.G | 2 | 34.5 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 3.0 | −4.7 | −1.6 |
| Daisean WillifordF · transfer from Oregon St | 2 | 30.5 | 20.5 | 3.0 | 0.5 | −4.8 | −1.5 |
| Ralph Martino Jr.G | 2 | 19.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.5 | −5.3 | −1.1 |
| Ben NdourF | 2 | 16.5 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 0.5 | −3.6 | −0.5 |
| Chandler DavisG | 2 | 15.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −3.6 | −0.4 |
| Joel MokwezaC | 2 | 12.5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | −3.4 | −0.3 |
| Tuscan OnuohaF | 2 | 12.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | −6.0 | −0.9 |
| Jayden JosephG | 1 | 21.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −3.3 | −0.5 |
| Mihailo StijovicF | 2 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −3.2 | −0.2 |
| Assane MbayeC · transfer from Seton Hall | 2 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.7 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 49.6%rank 263 | 52.1%rank 332 | 50.1% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 19.1%rank 298 | 16.8%rank 360 | 18.5% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 29.6%rank 342 | 33.2%rank 319 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 24.2%rank 287 | 27.6%rank 319 | 25.6% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.1 expected (−0.1)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −1.1 points a game (they shot 33.3%, league 31.9%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −2.5 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- 0-1
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −16.5
- Last season's net rating
- −14.8
- Last season's minutes returning
- 28%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −3.2
- Change since preseason
- −5.6
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 94.3 (rank 340)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 116.4 (rank 360)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 72.1 (rank 72)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +14.3 (rank 46)
Southwestern Athletic Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jackson State | 1-1 | 0-0 | −12.9 | 95.9 | 108.8 | 290 |
| 2 | Southern | 0-1 | 0-0 | −13.0 | 96.3 | 109.3 | 292 |
| 3 | Texas Southern | 0-1 | 0-0 | −14.6 | 98.3 | 112.9 | 310 |
| 4 | Alabama State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.9 | 94.7 | 110.5 | 322 |
| 5 | Bethune-Cookman | 0-1 | 0-0 | −16.0 | 95.9 | 111.9 | 324 |
| 6 | Grambling | 1-0 | 0-0 | −17.5 | 97.4 | 115.0 | 334 |
| 7 | Alabama A&M | 1-0 | 0-0 | −18.4 | 95.1 | 113.5 | 339 |
| 8 | Prairie View A&M | 2-0 | 0-0 | −19.7 | 94.4 | 114.0 | 346 |
| 9 | Florida A&M | 0-2 | 0-0 | −22.0 | 94.3 | 116.4 | 354 |
| 10 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 0-1 | 0-0 | −22.3 | 93.9 | 116.2 | 356 |
| 11 | Alcorn State | 0-2 | 0-0 | −23.0 | 94.7 | 117.8 | 361 |
| 12 | Mississippi Valley State | 0-0 | 0-0 | −29.1 | 88.9 | 118.0 | 365 |