Southern Jaguars
Makes the tournament21%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.2
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 17-18
Net rating−12.9Rank 291 of 365 · offence 309, defence 252
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 17-18 (12 to 21 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 12-6
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 27%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 21%
- Average seed if in the field
- 15.2
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field21%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at SMUrank 73 | Away | 1% | 56-84 | L 72-85 | Right |
| Fri 6 Nov8 PM ET | at TCUrank 35 | Away | 1% | 60-89 | — | |
| Sun 8 Nov3 PM ET | at Drakerank 115 | Away | 8% | 66-84 | — | |
| Tue 10 Nov8 PM ET | at Iowa Staterank 9 | Away | 0% | 57-94 | — | |
| Thu 12 Nov8 PM ET | at Minnesotarank 65 | Away | 2% | 60-84 | — |
Rooting guide
- Fri 6 Nov: at TCUA win: 21% · a loss: 21%0 pts
- Sun 8 Nov: at DrakeA win: 20% · a loss: 21%−1 pts
- Thu 12 Nov: at MinnesotaA win: 18% · a loss: 21%−2 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin PageG · transfer from Niagara | 1 | 28.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | −3.2 | −0.6 |
| Daniel DormuG · transfer from Tarleton St | 1 | 27.0 | 10.0 | 1.0 | 7.0 | −3.0 | −0.4 |
| Malik FergusonG · transfer from Tennessee Tech | 1 | 24.0 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −4.1 | −0.9 |
| R'Chaun KingF · transfer from Alabama St | 1 | 23.0 | 12.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | −0.4 |
| Joseph HunterG | 1 | 17.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −1.8 | +0.1 |
| Armonii BenjaminG | 1 | 16.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | −1.7 | +0.1 |
| Ibrahim OlajuwonC · transfer from FIU | 1 | 12.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −1.6 | +0.1 |
| Duran ParishG | 1 | 11.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −1.6 | +0.1 |
| Aaron HallF | 1 | 11.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −1.6 | +0.1 |
| Karez DemoryG | 1 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −1.6 | +0.1 |
| Julian GreerG | 1 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.6 | +0.1 |
| Lionel LarvadainG · transfer from Chicago St | 1 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −4.9 | −0.2 |
| Noah BoydeC · transfer from Western KY | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.9 | +0.1 |
| Lionel BellC | 1 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −3.8 | −0.1 |
| Sean Van Dorn Jr.G · transfer from GA Southern | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −2.7 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 51.3%rank 76 | 50.9%rank 261 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 19.0%rank 285 | 20.6%rank 7 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 31.6%rank 213 | 31.6%rank 153 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 25.0%rank 231 | 31.0%rank 365 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.0 expected (0.0)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −4.5 points a game (they shot 41.2%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −4.4 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −16.2
- Last season's net rating
- −10.4
- Last season's minutes returning
- 13%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −4.7
- Change since preseason
- +3.3
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 96.5 (rank 309)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 109.4 (rank 252)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 72.7 (rank 44)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +10.6 (rank 73)
Southwestern Athletic Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southern | 0-1 | 0-0 | −12.9 | 96.5 | 109.4 | 291 |
| 2 | Texas Southern | 0-1 | 0-0 | −14.5 | 98.5 | 113.0 | 309 |
| 3 | Alabama State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.7 | 94.9 | 110.6 | 324 |
| 4 | Jackson State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.9 | 93.8 | 109.7 | 327 |
| 5 | Bethune-Cookman | 0-1 | 0-0 | −16.0 | 96.1 | 112.1 | 329 |
| 6 | Grambling | 1-0 | 0-0 | −17.6 | 97.6 | 115.2 | 334 |
| 7 | Alabama A&M | 1-0 | 0-0 | −18.4 | 95.2 | 113.6 | 340 |
| 8 | Prairie View A&M | 1-0 | 0-0 | −19.7 | 94.5 | 114.2 | 346 |
| 9 | Florida A&M | 0-1 | 0-0 | −22.0 | 94.5 | 116.5 | 355 |
| 10 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 0-1 | 0-0 | −22.2 | 94.2 | 116.3 | 357 |
| 11 | Alcorn State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −22.5 | 92.2 | 114.7 | 359 |
| 12 | Mississippi Valley State | 0-0 | 0-0 | −29.1 | 89.1 | 118.1 | 365 |