Grambling Tigers
Makes the tournament8%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.3
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 16-18
Net rating−17.6Rank 334 of 365 · offence 292, defence 351
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 16-18 (11 to 22 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 9-9
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 8%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 8%
- Average seed if in the field
- 15.3
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field8%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Northern Illinoisrank 351 | Neutral | 48% | 66-66 | W 89-87 | Wrong |
| Mon 9 Nov7 PM ET | at Texasrank 25 | Away | 0% | 61-95 | — |
Rooting guide
- No games this week
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah HowardG | 1 | 31.0 | 13.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | −2.5 | −0.3 |
| Dwayne PierceG · transfer from NC A&T | 1 | 31.0 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | −4.8 | −1.5 |
| Brandon HardyG · transfer from Southern | 1 | 29.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −4.5 | −1.2 |
| Antoine ShannonG | 1 | 29.0 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | −2.5 | −0.2 |
| Isaiah MirandaF · transfer from Long Island | 1 | 22.0 | 29.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | −2.9 | −0.3 |
| Antonio ShannonG | 1 | 21.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −2.4 | −0.1 |
| Chancellor PerkinsG | 1 | 16.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −4.4 | −0.7 |
| Mekhi FittsF | 1 | 15.0 | 12.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −3.7 | −0.4 |
| Hassan WashingtonF · transfer from N Illinois | 1 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | −5.6 | −0.4 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 53.2%rank 9 | 51.7%rank 317 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 17.7%rank 39 | 17.5%rank 341 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 30.7%rank 296 | 31.5%rank 139 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 27.4%rank 38 | 25.7%rank 264 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 0.5 expected (+0.5)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −11.9 points a game (they shot 45.2%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −1.9 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- 1-0
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −19.3
- Last season's net rating
- −12.2
- Last season's minutes returning
- 5%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −4.5
- Change since preseason
- +1.7
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 97.6 (rank 292)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 115.1 (rank 351)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 71.5 (rank 170)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −20.2 (rank 277)
Southwestern Athletic Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southern | 0-1 | 0-0 | −12.9 | 96.5 | 109.4 | 291 |
| 2 | Texas Southern | 0-1 | 0-0 | −14.5 | 98.5 | 113.0 | 309 |
| 3 | Alabama State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.8 | 94.9 | 110.6 | 324 |
| 4 | Jackson State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.9 | 93.8 | 109.7 | 327 |
| 5 | Bethune-Cookman | 0-1 | 0-0 | −16.0 | 96.0 | 112.1 | 329 |
| 6 | Grambling | 1-0 | 0-0 | −17.6 | 97.6 | 115.1 | 334 |
| 7 | Alabama A&M | 1-0 | 0-0 | −18.4 | 95.2 | 113.6 | 339 |
| 8 | Prairie View A&M | 1-0 | 0-0 | −19.7 | 94.5 | 114.2 | 345 |
| 9 | Florida A&M | 0-1 | 0-0 | −22.0 | 94.5 | 116.5 | 355 |
| 10 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 0-1 | 0-0 | −22.2 | 94.1 | 116.3 | 357 |
| 11 | Alcorn State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −22.5 | 92.2 | 114.7 | 359 |
| 12 | Mississippi Valley State | 0-0 | 0-0 | −29.1 | 89.0 | 118.1 | 365 |