Texas Longhorns

Men's · Southeastern Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Gardner-Webb · Thu 5 Nov, 8 PM ET

Gardner-Webb0%100%Texas

Projected 94-57 · Game page

Makes the tournament70%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 5.9

Wins the national title1%Final Four 4% · projected 22-11

Net rating+20.8Rank 25 of 365 · offence 13, defence 43

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 22-11 (16 to 27 wins)
Projected conference record: 10-8
Wins or shares the conference title: 4%
Wins the conference tournament: 4%
Average seed if in the field: 5.9
A 1 seed: 1%

Makes the field70%
Round of 3252%
Sweet 1625%
Elite Eight10%
Final Four4%
Title game2%
Champion1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Chicago Staterank 364	Home	100%	86-49	W 109-59	Right
Thu 5 Nov8 PM ET	vs Gardner-Webbrank 345	Home	100%	94-57	—
Mon 9 Nov7 PM ET	vs Gramblingrank 334	Home	100%	95-61	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 70% · the next 7 days

No games this week

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Austin GoosbyG	1	28.0	7.0	7.0	8.0	+0.6	+1.3
Matas VokietaitisC	1	25.0	22.0	6.0	1.0	+7.4	+4.2
Isaiah JohnsonG · transfer from Colorado	1	25.0	18.0	3.0	5.0	+6.0	+3.6
David PunchF · transfer from TCU	1	24.0	9.0	3.0	3.0	+7.7	+4.2
Amari EvansG · transfer from Tennessee	1	22.0	11.0	7.0	0.0	+6.3	+3.3
Marcus Spears Jr.F	1	20.0	11.0	5.0	1.0	+0.8	+1.0
Elyjah FreemanG · transfer from Auburn	1	16.0	5.0	4.0	0.0	+6.0	+2.3
Joe SterlingG	1	15.0	14.0	3.0	3.0	+0.9	+0.8
Bo OgdenG	1	14.0	8.0	2.0	1.0	+0.9	+0.8
Lewis ObiorahC	1	8.0	4.0	1.0	0.0	+1.1	+0.5
Anthon McDermottG	1	2.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	+3.8	+0.2
Mantas LaurencikasG	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+1.3	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	53.4%rank 6	50.1%rank 124	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.3%rank 118	18.6%rank 127	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	35.0%rank 8	31.8%rank 238	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	24.6%rank 256	23.2%rank 39	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +0.5 points a game (they shot 31.2%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +2.3 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +19.0
Last season's net rating: +19.6
Last season's minutes returning: 13%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +11.5
Change since preseason: +1.8

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 118.6 (rank 13)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 97.8 (rank 43)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.1 (rank 216)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −26.3 (rank 289)

Southeastern Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Florida	1-0	0-0	+32.8	121.3	88.5	2
2	Tennessee	1-0	0-0	+27.7	119.2	91.5	7
3	Alabama	1-0	0-0	+24.3	118.4	94.0	13
4	Vanderbilt	1-0	0-0	+24.0	117.0	93.0	14
5	Auburn	1-0	0-0	+21.7	117.8	96.1	19
6	Kentucky	1-0	0-0	+20.9	116.7	95.8	23
7	Texas	1-0	0-0	+20.8	118.6	97.8	25
8	Arkansas	1-0	0-0	+20.8	116.8	96.0	26
9	Missouri	1-0	0-0	+20.1	118.1	98.0	30
10	Ole Miss	1-0	0-0	+19.6	114.6	94.9	32
11	Texas A&M	1-0	0-0	+16.9	112.3	95.5	37
12	Georgia	1-0	0-0	+16.8	113.1	96.3	39
13	Oklahoma	0-1	0-0	+15.2	114.0	98.7	49
14	LSU	1-0	0-0	+13.1	111.3	98.2	59
15	South Carolina	1-0	0-0	+9.5	110.2	100.8	82
16	Mississippi State	1-0	0-0	+7.0	111.7	104.7	93