Kentucky Wildcats

Men's · Southeastern Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs James Madison · Fri 6 Nov, 7 PM ET

James Madison1%99%Kentucky

Projected 90-61 · Game page

Makes the tournament65%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 5.9

Wins the national title1%Final Four 4% · projected 22-12

Net rating+20.9Rank 23 of 365 · offence 25, defence 27

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 22-12 (16 to 27 wins)
Projected conference record: 9-9
Wins or shares the conference title: 3%
Wins the conference tournament: 4%
Average seed if in the field: 5.9
A 1 seed: 2%

Makes the field65%
Round of 3249%
Sweet 1624%
Elite Eight10%
Final Four4%
Title game2%
Champion1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Tue 3 Nov	vs Manhattanrank 306	Home	100%	94-59	W 85-57	Right
Fri 6 Nov7 PM ET	vs James Madisonrank 265	Home	99%	90-61	—
Tue 10 Nov9:30 PM ET	vs Kansasrank 3	Neutral	26%	72-80	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 65% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs James MadisonA win: 65% · a loss: 60%+6 pts
Tue 10 Nov: vs KansasA win: 70% · a loss: 64%+6 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Milan MomcilovicF · transfer from Iowa State	1	29.0	24.0	5.0	1.0	+8.6	+5.5
Zoom DialloG · transfer from Washington	1	27.0	12.0	3.0	2.0	+5.7	+3.8
Alex WilkinsG · transfer from Furman	1	26.0	11.0	2.0	5.0	+2.8	+2.2
Malachi MorenoC	1	20.0	8.0	10.0	2.0	+7.7	+3.5
Ousmane N'DiayeF	1	20.0	4.0	4.0	0.0	+0.9	+1.1
Braydon HawthorneF	1	19.0	8.0	5.0	4.0	+1.0	+1.0
Mason WilliamsG	1	19.0	7.0	0.0	5.0	+0.9	+1.0
Justin McBrideF · transfer from James Madison	1	16.0	3.0	2.0	1.0	+3.8	+1.7
Franck KepnangC · transfer from Washington	1	13.0	8.0	3.0	0.0	+6.0	+1.9
Reece PotterF	1	6.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	+1.3	+0.4
Zyon HawthorneG	1	5.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	+1.3	+0.3

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	51.7%rank 53	49.9%rank 101	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	19.4%rank 325	18.4%rank 235	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	33.7%rank 27	32.3%rank 271	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	22.9%rank 335	25.2%rank 233	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +4.2 points a game (they shot 26.9%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +3.8 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +22.2
Last season's net rating: +22.3
Last season's minutes returning: 21%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +8.3
Change since preseason: −1.3

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 116.7 (rank 25)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 95.8 (rank 27)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.5 (rank 170)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −14.1 (rank 240)

Southeastern Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Florida	1-0	0-0	+32.8	121.2	88.5	2
2	Tennessee	1-0	0-0	+27.7	119.1	91.4	7
3	Alabama	1-0	0-0	+24.4	118.3	94.0	13
4	Vanderbilt	1-0	0-0	+24.1	117.0	93.0	14
5	Auburn	1-0	0-0	+21.7	117.8	96.1	19
6	Kentucky	1-0	0-0	+20.9	116.7	95.8	23
7	Texas	1-0	0-0	+20.8	118.5	97.7	25
8	Arkansas	1-0	0-0	+20.8	116.8	96.0	26
9	Missouri	1-0	0-0	+20.1	118.1	98.0	30
10	Ole Miss	1-0	0-0	+19.7	114.5	94.9	32
11	Texas A&M	1-0	0-0	+16.9	112.3	95.4	37
12	Georgia	1-0	0-0	+16.8	113.1	96.3	39
13	Oklahoma	0-1	0-0	+15.3	114.0	98.7	49
14	LSU	1-0	0-0	+13.1	111.3	98.2	59
15	South Carolina	1-0	0-0	+9.5	110.2	100.7	82
16	Mississippi State	1-0	0-0	+7.0	111.7	104.7	94