James Madison Dukes

Men's · Sun Belt Conference · 0-1, 0-0 in conference · last L1

Next: at Kentucky · Fri 6 Nov, 7 PM ET

James Madison1%99%Kentucky

Projected 61-90 · Game page

Makes the tournament3%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.8

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 15-17

Net rating−10.6Rank 258 of 365 · offence 246, defence 290

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 15-17 (10 to 21 wins)
Projected conference record: 8-10
Wins or shares the conference title: 3%
Wins the conference tournament: 3%
Average seed if in the field: 14.8
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field3%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Miami (OH)rank 103	Home	34%	67-73	L 77-86	Right
Fri 6 Nov7 PM ET	at Kentuckyrank 26	Away	1%	61-90	—
Wed 11 Nov7 PM ET	at Delawarerank 273	Away	39%	71-75	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 3% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: at KentuckyA win: 4% · a loss: 3%0 pts
Wed 11 Nov: at DelawareA win: 3% · a loss: 3%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Adrian MyersG · transfer from San José St	1	29.0	11.0	5.0	2.0	−1.3	+0.4
Garrett SundraF · transfer from Notre Dame	1	26.0	8.0	8.0	0.0	−1.3	+0.3
K.J. WindhamG · transfer from Northwestern	1	25.0	11.0	2.0	2.0	−0.6	+0.7
Preston FowlerF	1	24.0	3.0	7.0	1.0	−2.9	−0.4
Paul Jones IIIG	1	22.0	14.0	3.0	2.0	−4.7	−1.0
Brandon LeeG · transfer from Illinois	1	21.0	7.0	2.0	1.0	+0.9	+1.1
Gage LattimoreG · transfer from NC Central	1	20.0	3.0	3.0	2.0	−4.0	−0.7
Ace MeeksG	1	17.0	11.0	0.0	2.0	−2.8	−0.2
Jacob HogarthF · transfer from Gardner-Webb	1	14.0	9.0	3.0	1.0	−3.5	−0.4
Marley CurtisF · transfer from North Dakota	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−3.5	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	49.0%rank 299	51.2%rank 294	50.1%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.5%rank 225	17.5%rank 329	18.5%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.4%rank 227	33.0%rank 307	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	22.7%rank 350	25.8%rank 242	25.6%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 0.0 won, 0.3 expected (−0.3)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −1.1 points a game (they shot 33.3%, league 31.9%)
Opponents' free throws: −4.3 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −8.8
Last season's net rating: −4.2
Last season's minutes returning: 15%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −7.5
Change since preseason: −1.8

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 100.0 (rank 246)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 110.7 (rank 290)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 70.8 (rank 223)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +5.0 (rank 92)

Sun Belt Conference by rating

14 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	App State	2-0	0-0	−3.7	101.3	105.0	165
2	Arkansas State	1-0	0-0	−4.0	100.8	104.8	170
3	Louisiana Tech	2-0	0-0	−4.1	104.1	108.2	173
4	Marshall	1-0	0-0	−4.1	103.2	107.3	173
5	Troy	0-1	0-0	−5.7	100.6	106.3	194
6	South Alabama	0-1	0-0	−6.4	102.0	108.4	208
7	Old Dominion	2-0	0-0	−7.1	98.7	105.8	219
8	Southern Miss	1-0	0-0	−9.5	99.1	108.6	248
9	Coastal Carolina	0-1	0-0	−9.9	99.2	109.2	253
10	James Madison	0-1	0-0	−10.6	100.0	110.7	258
11	Georgia Southern	1-0	0-0	−10.7	98.2	109.0	263
12	Georgia State	0-2	0-0	−15.1	96.2	111.3	315
13	Louisiana	0-1	0-0	−15.3	95.2	110.4	317
14	UL Monroe	1-1	0-0	−18.2	96.0	114.2	338