South Alabama Jaguars
Makes the tournament9%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.4
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 18-15
Net rating−6.4Rank 208 of 365 · offence 194, defence 228
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 18-15 (12 to 23 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 10-8
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 11%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 9%
- Average seed if in the field
- 14.4
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field9%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Ohiorank 144 | Home | 55% | 69-67 | L 77-86 | Wrong |
| Thu 5 Nov8 PM ET | vs Jacksonville Staterank 228 | Home | 66% | 75-70 | Live | |
| Tue 10 Nov7 PM ET | at UCFrank 73 | Away | 7% | 69-86 | — | |
| Thu 12 Nov8 PM ET | vs Loyola Marymountrank 177 | Neutral | 45% | 74-75 | — |
Rooting guide
- Thu 5 Nov: vs Jacksonville StateA win: 9% · a loss: 9%0 pts
- Tue 10 Nov: at UCFA win: 9% · a loss: 9%0 pts
- Thu 12 Nov: vs Loyola MarymountA win: 9% · a loss: 8%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen LangsyG | 1 | 36.0 | 25.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | −2.0 | +0.1 |
| Diego RomanG | 1 | 35.0 | 19.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | −1.9 | +0.1 |
| Aaron GoldsteinG | 1 | 28.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | −1.8 | +0.1 |
| Davaughn HueittF | 1 | 25.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | −1.8 | +0.1 |
| Stephen WilliamsF | 1 | 24.0 | 14.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | +1.2 | +1.4 |
| Roderick Williams Jr.F | 1 | 16.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −1.5 | +0.2 |
| Peyton LawF | 1 | 14.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | +0.1 | +0.5 |
| Desmond WilliamsG | 1 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −1.3 | +0.1 |
| Samuel ShoptawG | 1 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.3 | +0.1 |
| Lenni KunzewitschF | 1 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.2 | +0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 50.3%rank 136 | 53.0%rank 356 | 50.1% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.1%rank 111 | 18.1%rank 270 | 18.5% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 28.7%rank 358 | 31.8%rank 245 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 26.0%rank 112 | 25.9%rank 250 | 25.6% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.6 expected (−0.6)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −11.7 points a game (they shot 42.1%, league 31.9%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −1.6 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −5.7
- Last season's net rating
- −2.8
- Last season's minutes returning
- 12%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- 0.0
- Change since preseason
- −0.7
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 102.0 (rank 194)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 108.4 (rank 228)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 70.1 (rank 302)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −2.0 (rank 123)
Sun Belt Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | App State | 2-0 | 0-0 | −3.7 | 101.3 | 105.0 | 165 |
| 2 | Arkansas State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −4.0 | 100.8 | 104.8 | 170 |
| 3 | Louisiana Tech | 2-0 | 0-0 | −4.1 | 104.1 | 108.2 | 173 |
| 4 | Marshall | 1-0 | 0-0 | −4.1 | 103.2 | 107.3 | 173 |
| 5 | Troy | 0-1 | 0-0 | −5.7 | 100.6 | 106.3 | 194 |
| 6 | South Alabama | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.4 | 102.0 | 108.4 | 208 |
| 7 | Old Dominion | 2-0 | 0-0 | −7.1 | 98.7 | 105.8 | 219 |
| 8 | Southern Miss | 1-0 | 0-0 | −9.5 | 99.1 | 108.6 | 248 |
| 9 | Coastal Carolina | 0-1 | 0-0 | −9.9 | 99.2 | 109.2 | 253 |
| 10 | James Madison | 0-1 | 0-0 | −10.6 | 100.0 | 110.7 | 258 |
| 11 | Georgia Southern | 1-0 | 0-0 | −10.7 | 98.2 | 109.0 | 263 |
| 12 | Georgia State | 0-2 | 0-0 | −15.1 | 96.2 | 111.3 | 315 |
| 13 | Louisiana | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.3 | 95.2 | 110.4 | 317 |
| 14 | UL Monroe | 1-1 | 0-0 | −18.2 | 96.0 | 114.2 | 338 |