Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
Makes the tournament3%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.8
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 15-18
Net rating−10.1Rank 257 of 365 · offence 260, defence 249
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 15-18 (9 to 20 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 8-10
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 4%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 3%
- Average seed if in the field
- 14.8
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field3%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Eastern Michiganrank 226 | Home | 56% | 68-66 | L 70-71 | Wrong |
| Thu 5 Nov8 PM ET | at Dukerank 1 | Away | 0% | 54-92 | Live | |
| Mon 9 Nov7 PM ET | vs South Carolina Upstaterank 308 | Home | 74% | 77-69 | — | |
| Thu 12 Nov7 PM ET | vs Virginia Lynchburgnot Division I | Home | — | — | — |
Rooting guide
- Mon 9 Nov: vs South Carolina UpstateA win: 3% · a loss: 3%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey PerryG · transfer from Miami OH | 1 | 32.0 | 20.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | −0.5 | +0.9 |
| Jaylen CrossG · transfer from Wake Forest | 1 | 27.0 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | −1.2 | +0.4 |
| Darius Washington IIIG · transfer from Kennesaw St | 1 | 27.0 | 13.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | −2.4 | −0.2 |
| Tristan ThompsonG | 1 | 26.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | −3.1 | −0.5 |
| Caleb MiddletonC · transfer from Elon | 1 | 17.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | 0.0 |
| Derrick GreenF | 1 | 17.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | −0.6 |
| Drew FuquayF · transfer from Marshall | 1 | 16.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.1 | 0.0 |
| DaJohn CraigG | 1 | 15.0 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −2.7 | −0.2 |
| Jordan BuzzardF | 1 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −2.1 | 0.0 |
| Ashton HardawayF · transfer from Memphis | 1 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −0.3 | +0.3 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 49.2%rank 306 | 50.4%rank 155 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 19.1%rank 299 | 16.9%rank 360 | 18.5% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 32.0%rank 113 | 31.0%rank 95 | 31.8% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 23.4%rank 313 | 28.5%rank 355 | 25.1% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.6 expected (−0.6)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −4.4 points a game (they shot 42.9%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −3.0 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- 0-1
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −10.2
- Last season's net rating
- −6.9
- Last season's minutes returning
- 21%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- +0.6
- Change since preseason
- +0.1
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 99.3 (rank 260)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 109.4 (rank 249)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 70.9 (rank 233)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −7.5 (rank 189)
Sun Belt Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | App State | 2-0 | 0-0 | −3.3 | 101.7 | 105.0 | 162 |
| 2 | Arkansas State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −4.1 | 101.0 | 105.0 | 171 |
| 3 | Marshall | 1-0 | 0-0 | −4.1 | 103.3 | 107.4 | 172 |
| 4 | Louisiana Tech | 1-0 | 0-0 | −4.3 | 104.2 | 108.5 | 175 |
| 5 | Troy | 0-1 | 0-0 | −5.8 | 100.7 | 106.5 | 195 |
| 6 | South Alabama | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.5 | 102.1 | 108.7 | 209 |
| 7 | Old Dominion | 2-0 | 0-0 | −7.2 | 98.8 | 106.0 | 220 |
| 8 | Southern Miss | 1-0 | 0-0 | −9.5 | 99.3 | 108.7 | 250 |
| 9 | Coastal Carolina | 0-1 | 0-0 | −10.1 | 99.3 | 109.4 | 257 |
| 10 | James Madison | 0-1 | 0-0 | −10.7 | 100.2 | 110.9 | 266 |
| 11 | Georgia Southern | 1-0 | 0-0 | −10.9 | 98.3 | 109.2 | 270 |
| 12 | Georgia State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.2 | 96.1 | 111.3 | 316 |
| 13 | Louisiana | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.4 | 95.3 | 110.7 | 322 |
| 14 | UL Monroe | 1-1 | 0-0 | −18.3 | 96.2 | 114.4 | 338 |