South Carolina Upstate Spartans
Makes the tournament1%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.3
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 14-20
Net rating−14.3Rank 308 of 365 · offence 306, defence 301
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 14-20 (10 to 19 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 6-10
- Wins or shares the conference title
- <1%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 1%
- Average seed if in the field
- 15.3
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field1%
- Round of 320%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at East Carolinarank 216 | Away | 20% | 63-73 | L 70-83 | Right |
| Fri 6 Nov6:30 PM ET | vs South Carolina Staterank 341 | Home | 74% | 78-70 | — | |
| Mon 9 Nov7 PM ET | at Coastal Carolinarank 257 | Away | 26% | 69-77 | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov6:30 PM ET | vs Bob Jonesnot Division I | Home | — | — | — |
Rooting guide
- Fri 6 Nov: vs South Carolina StateA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
- Mon 9 Nov: at Coastal CarolinaA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles WebbF · transfer from Delaware St | 1 | 30.0 | 12.0 | 10.0 | 2.0 | −4.2 | −1.1 |
| Amont'e Allen-JohnsonG | 1 | 30.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | −2.5 | −0.2 |
| Derek EdmondF | 1 | 29.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | −2.4 | −0.2 |
| Ries NaugleG | 1 | 26.0 | 15.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | −2.4 | −0.1 |
| David TubekF · transfer from UTEP | 1 | 25.0 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | −4.0 | −0.9 |
| Jalyn PattersonG | 1 | 22.0 | 16.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | −2.3 | −0.1 |
| Coen CollierC | 1 | 18.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | −3.0 | −0.3 |
| Alessandro PerottiF | 1 | 14.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −2.1 | 0.0 |
| Zachary JohnsonF · transfer from UCF | 1 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −0.4 | +0.2 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 52.0%rank 42 | 50.8%rank 255 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 19.7%rank 342 | 18.5%rank 219 | 18.5% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 32.5%rank 86 | 31.6%rank 144 | 31.8% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 22.9%rank 332 | 25.4%rank 243 | 25.1% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.2 expected (−0.2)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −11.8 points a game (they shot 48.0%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +0.2 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −14.6
- Last season's net rating
- −11.0
- Last season's minutes returning
- 7%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −3.1
- Change since preseason
- +0.4
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 96.9 (rank 306)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 111.2 (rank 301)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 71.5 (rank 158)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −7.0 (rank 181)
Big South Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | High Point | 2-0 | 0-0 | +8.0 | 107.3 | 99.2 | 86 |
| 2 | Presbyterian | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.3 | 103.3 | 109.6 | 204 |
| 3 | Radford | 0-2 | 0-0 | −7.3 | 100.9 | 108.2 | 221 |
| 4 | Longwood | 1-1 | 0-0 | −7.5 | 100.9 | 108.3 | 225 |
| 5 | Winthrop | 0-1 | 0-0 | −8.8 | 102.6 | 111.4 | 242 |
| 6 | UNC Asheville | 1-1 | 0-0 | −9.7 | 101.1 | 110.8 | 256 |
| 7 | Charleston Southern | 0-1 | 0-0 | −10.5 | 100.0 | 110.5 | 259 |
| 8 | South Carolina Upstate | 0-1 | 0-0 | −14.3 | 96.9 | 111.2 | 308 |
| 9 | Gardner-Webb | 0-1 | 0-0 | −19.6 | 92.4 | 112.1 | 345 |