Presbyterian Blue Hose

Men's · Big South Conference · 0-1, 0-0 in conference · last L1

Next: at Georgia · Fri 6 Nov, 7 PM ET

Presbyterian3%97%Georgia

Projected 65-88 · Game page

Makes the tournament8%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.4

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 17-16

Net rating−6.3Rank 204 of 365 · offence 172, defence 257

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 17-16 (12 to 22 wins)
Projected conference record: 9-7
Wins or shares the conference title: 5%
Wins the conference tournament: 8%
Average seed if in the field: 14.4
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field8%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs St. Thomasrank 146	Home	53%	69-68	L 78-87	Wrong
Fri 6 Nov7 PM ET	at Georgiarank 39	Away	3%	65-88	—
Tue 10 Nov7 PM ET	at NC Staterank 62	Away	5%	67-86	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 8% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: at GeorgiaA win: 7% · a loss: 8%−1 pts
Tue 10 Nov: at NC StateA win: 8% · a loss: 8%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Triston WilsonG	1	37.0	19.0	6.0	6.0	−1.4	+0.4
Jaylen PetersonF	1	32.0	18.0	7.0	2.0	+0.7	+1.6
Carl ParrishG	1	28.0	2.0	4.0	0.0	−1.3	+0.4
Iverson KingG	1	26.0	8.0	5.0	0.0	−3.4	−0.6
EJ SmithG	1	25.0	18.0	2.0	1.0	−1.2	+0.4
Erik TaylorG	1	23.0	4.0	1.0	2.0	−2.5	−0.2
Chidi ChiakweluF	1	16.0	5.0	5.0	0.0	−0.5	+0.5
Khalon HudsonG	1	13.0	4.0	1.0	1.0	−0.4	+0.4

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	49.6%rank 280	53.6%rank 362	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.3%rank 123	17.7%rank 325	18.5%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.1%rank 265	30.3%rank 48	31.8%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	25.2%rank 214	27.6%rank 332	25.3%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 0.0 won, 0.5 expected (−0.5)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −12.8 points a game (they shot 50.0%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −4.5 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −6.2
Last season's net rating: −8.8
Last season's minutes returning: 71%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: 0.0
Change since preseason: −0.1

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 103.4 (rank 172)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 109.7 (rank 257)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 70.3 (rank 299)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −1.9 (rank 126)

Big South Conference by rating

9 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	High Point	2-0	0-0	+8.0	107.3	99.3	85
2	Presbyterian	0-1	0-0	−6.3	103.4	109.7	204
3	Radford	0-2	0-0	−7.3	100.9	108.2	222
4	Longwood	1-1	0-0	−7.5	100.9	108.4	226
5	Winthrop	0-1	0-0	−8.8	102.7	111.5	242
6	UNC Asheville	1-1	0-0	−9.7	101.1	110.8	256
7	Charleston Southern	0-1	0-0	−10.6	100.0	110.5	259
8	South Carolina Upstate	0-1	0-0	−14.3	97.0	111.2	308
9	Gardner-Webb	0-1	0-0	−19.7	92.5	112.1	346