NC State Wolfpack

Men's · Atlantic Coast Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs ETSU · Fri 6 Nov, 7 PM ET

ETSU6%94%NC State

Projected 84-66 · Game page

Makes the tournament25%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 8.4

Wins the national title<1%Final Four <1% · projected 20-12

Net rating+12.7Rank 62 of 365 · offence 58, defence 68

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 20-12 (15 to 25 wins)
Projected conference record: 10-9
Wins or shares the conference title: <1%
Wins the conference tournament: 1%
Average seed if in the field: 8.4
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field25%
Round of 3212%
Sweet 163%
Elite Eight1%
Final Four<1%
Title game<1%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Campbellrank 187	Home	96%	81-60	W 83-64	Right
Fri 6 Nov7 PM ET	vs East Tennessee Staterank 186	Home	94%	84-66	—
Tue 10 Nov7 PM ET	vs Presbyterianrank 203	Home	95%	86-67	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 25% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs East Tennessee StateA win: 25% · a loss: 21%+4 pts
Tue 10 Nov: vs PresbyterianA win: 25% · a loss: 23%+2 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Darius AdamsG · transfer from Maryland	1	31.0	16.0	4.0	4.0	+0.3	+1.3
Ven-Allen LubinF	1	26.0	20.0	10.0	4.0	+5.7	+3.6
Preston EdmeadG · transfer from Hofstra	1	26.0	10.0	1.0	3.0	+2.2	+2.0
Paul McNeil Jr.G	1	25.0	11.0	6.0	0.0	+4.1	+2.8
Christian HammondG · transfer from Santa Clara	1	25.0	14.0	5.0	6.0	+3.9	+2.7
Eemeli YalahoF · transfer from Washington St	1	19.0	3.0	3.0	0.0	+1.2	+1.1
Kyle EvansF · transfer from UC Irvine	1	15.0	5.0	3.0	1.0	+5.0	+1.9
Robert JurkovicF	1	9.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	−0.9	+0.2
R.J. Keene IIG · transfer from Boise St	1	8.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	+2.0	+0.6
Kingston WhittyG	1	8.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	−0.8	+0.2
Zymicah WilkinsF	1	5.0	2.0	1.0	0.0	−0.7	+0.1
Shah HallF	1	4.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−0.7	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	51.7%rank 56	49.8%rank 99	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	19.0%rank 282	17.4%rank 343	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	30.8%rank 290	32.4%rank 275	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	24.0%rank 287	22.5%rank 16	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +8.1 points a game (they shot 23.3%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +0.5 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +14.6
Last season's net rating: +20.4
Last season's minutes returning: 28%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +5.5
Change since preseason: −2.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 112.5 (rank 58)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 99.8 (rank 68)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.9 (rank 116)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −5.1 (rank 160)

Atlantic Coast Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Duke	1-0	0-0	+33.5	121.9	88.4	1
2	Louisville	1-0	0-0	+21.8	117.0	95.2	18
3	Virginia	1-0	0-0	+20.2	115.0	94.8	28
4	Miami	0-1	0-0	+20.1	116.0	95.9	31
5	North Carolina	1-0	0-0	+15.6	113.7	98.1	44
6	Clemson	1-0	0-0	+14.6	114.4	99.7	53
7	Florida State	1-0	0-0	+14.3	113.9	99.6	54
8	Notre Dame	1-0	0-0	+13.2	111.7	98.5	58
9	NC State	1-0	0-0	+12.7	112.5	99.8	62
10	Syracuse	1-0	0-0	+11.1	111.5	100.4	67
11	SMU	1-0	0-0	+10.6	110.9	100.3	73
12	Stanford	1-0	0-0	+10.2	111.4	101.2	76
13	Virginia Tech	1-0	0-0	+9.6	109.0	99.4	79
14	Pittsburgh	1-0	0-0	+7.6	107.9	100.3	88
15	Georgia Tech	1-0	0-0	+7.6	106.1	98.5	89
16	Wake Forest	1-0	0-0	+7.5	108.6	101.2	90
17	California	2-0	0-0	+4.5	107.1	102.6	105
18	Boston College	1-0	0-0	+3.9	105.4	101.5	109