East Tennessee State Buccaneers
Makes the tournament16%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.2
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 21-13
Net rating−5.0Rank 186 of 365 · offence 175, defence 209
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 21-13 (15 to 27 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 13-7
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 22%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 16%
- Average seed if in the field
- 14.2
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field16%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Arizona Staterank 63 | Away | 7% | 59-77 | L 65-75 | Right |
| Fri 6 Nov7 PM ET | at NC Staterank 62 | Away | 6% | 66-84 | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov7 PM ET | vs Campbellrank 187 | Home | 64% | 76-72 | — |
Rooting guide
- Fri 6 Nov: at NC StateA win: 18% · a loss: 16%+2 pts
- Wed 11 Nov: vs CampbellA win: 16% · a loss: 16%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BJ WardG · transfer from SE Missouri | 1 | 37.0 | 25.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | −1.8 | +0.2 |
| Marqus MarionF · transfer from Wake Forest | 1 | 30.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −0.3 | +0.9 |
| Jayden CooperG · transfer from South Alabama | 1 | 30.0 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −1.2 | +0.5 |
| Trevor HennigG · transfer from Weber St | 1 | 25.0 | 15.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −1.1 | +0.4 |
| Tyran MasonG · transfer from UT Arlington | 1 | 22.0 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | +0.4 | +0.9 |
| Maki JohnsonG | 1 | 21.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | −0.9 | +0.4 |
| Elton SmithF | 1 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | −1.5 | +0.2 |
| Kendall CampbellF | 1 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.3 | +0.1 |
| Colt BusseG | 1 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.1 | +0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 51.4%rank 69 | 49.7%rank 90 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.5%rank 155 | 18.6%rank 129 | 18.5% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 33.2%rank 49 | 32.8%rank 301 | 31.8% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 24.0%rank 287 | 26.9%rank 310 | 25.1% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.1 expected (−0.1)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +1.2 points a game (they shot 30.8%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −3.1 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −5.4
- Last season's net rating
- +2.1
- Last season's minutes returning
- 24%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −1.0
- Change since preseason
- +0.4
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 103.1 (rank 175)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 108.1 (rank 209)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 70.0 (rank 319)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +12.4 (rank 62)
Southern Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Furman | 2-0 | 0-0 | −3.8 | 103.6 | 107.4 | 167 |
| 2 | East Tennessee State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −5.0 | 103.1 | 108.1 | 186 |
| 3 | Samford | 1-0 | 0-0 | −5.5 | 102.9 | 108.4 | 191 |
| 4 | Wofford | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.7 | 102.9 | 109.6 | 212 |
| 5 | Chattanooga | 0-1 | 0-0 | −7.7 | 102.3 | 110.0 | 228 |
| 6 | Mercer | 1-0 | 0-0 | −7.8 | 101.2 | 109.0 | 229 |
| 7 | Western Carolina | 0-1 | 0-0 | −8.6 | 100.4 | 109.0 | 240 |
| 8 | UNC Greensboro | 1-0 | 0-0 | −11.7 | 98.9 | 110.7 | 279 |
| 9 | Tennessee Tech | 1-1 | 0-0 | −11.8 | 101.8 | 113.5 | 280 |
| 10 | VMI | 1-0 | 0-0 | −17.9 | 96.3 | 114.2 | 336 |
| 11 | The Citadel | 0-1 | 0-0 | −23.4 | 93.0 | 116.3 | 361 |