Samford Bulldogs

Men's · Southern Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at UNLV · Sat 7 Nov, 4 PM ET

Samford14%86%UNLV

Projected 71-85 · Game page

Makes the tournament16%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.1

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 20-14

Net rating−5.5Rank 191 of 365 · offence 177, defence 222

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 20-14 (14 to 26 wins)
Projected conference record: 12-8
Wins or shares the conference title: 21%
Wins the conference tournament: 16%
Average seed if in the field: 14.1
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field16%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Berrynot Division I	Home	—	—	W 87-58
Sat 7 Nov4 PM ET	at UNLVrank 100	Away	14%	71-85	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 16% · the next 7 days

Sat 7 Nov: at UNLVA win: 17% · a loss: 16%+1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Isaiah Campbell-FinchG	1	20.0	7.0	1.0	2.0	−2.6	−0.2
Ty DavisG · transfer from Creighton	1	20.0	8.0	2.0	3.0	−0.4	+0.6
Cooper NoardG · transfer from Cornell	1	19.0	5.0	5.0	1.0	+2.4	+1.5
Will ShaverC	1	18.0	17.0	6.0	1.0	−1.6	+0.1
Cade NorrisG	1	18.0	13.0	1.0	2.0	−1.0	+0.3
Najimi GeorgeG · transfer from New Haven	1	16.0	9.0	4.0	0.0	−2.7	−0.2
Win MillerG · transfer from Belmont	1	15.0	2.0	1.0	4.0	−0.2	+0.5
Brandon FussellG	1	14.0	4.0	1.0	1.0	−1.2	+0.2
JD GossettG	1	12.0	7.0	1.0	0.0	−1.1	+0.2
Judson BjornstadF	1	9.0	2.0	2.0	0.0	−2.2	0.0
Braeden MacVicarF · transfer from Coastal	1	8.0	2.0	2.0	0.0	−1.9	0.0
Caleb HarrisonF	1	8.0	4.0	1.0	0.0	−1.6	+0.1
Zach LameyG	1	7.0	2.0	1.0	1.0	−1.8	0.0
Cooper DavenportG	1	5.0	0.0	1.0	2.0	−0.9	+0.1
Lawson LeeC	1	5.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	−0.9	+0.1
Joshua HughesF	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−0.8	0.0
Corey BrownG	1	2.0	2.0	1.0	0.0	−2.4	0.0
Bradley KempF	1	2.0	3.0	0.0	0.0	−0.8	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.4%rank 135	50.4%rank 155	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.6%rank 156	18.6%rank 134	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.7%rank 128	31.7%rank 162	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	25.2%rank 131	25.2%rank 153	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −5.5
Last season's net rating: −4.2
Last season's minutes returning: 36%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −1.6
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 102.9 (rank 177)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 108.4 (rank 222)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.6 (rank 147)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

Southern Conference by rating

11 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Furman	2-0	0-0	−3.8	103.6	107.4	167
2	East Tennessee State	0-1	0-0	−5.0	103.1	108.1	186
3	Samford	1-0	0-0	−5.5	102.9	108.4	191
4	Wofford	0-1	0-0	−6.7	102.9	109.6	212
5	Chattanooga	0-1	0-0	−7.7	102.3	110.0	228
6	Mercer	1-0	0-0	−7.8	101.2	109.0	229
7	Western Carolina	0-1	0-0	−8.6	100.4	109.0	240
8	UNC Greensboro	1-0	0-0	−11.7	98.9	110.7	279
9	Tennessee Tech	1-1	0-0	−11.8	101.8	113.5	280
10	VMI	1-0	0-0	−17.9	96.2	114.2	336
11	The Citadel	0-1	0-0	−23.4	93.0	116.3	361