Mercer Bears
Next: at Virginia Tech · Thu 5 Nov, 7 PM ETProjected 66-84 · Game page
Makes the tournament10%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.6
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 16-17
Net rating−7.8Rank 229 of 365 · offence 214, defence 241
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 16-17 (11 to 22 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 11-9
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 12%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 10%
- Average seed if in the field
- 14.6
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field10%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Reinhardtnot Division I | Home | — | — | W 90-53 | |
| Thu 5 Nov7 PM ET | at Virginia Techrank 77 | Away | 7% | 66-84 | Live | |
| Sat 7 Nov7 PM ET | at Davidsonrank 105 | Away | 13% | 66-80 | — | |
| Tue 10 Nov7 PM ET | at Georgia Southernrank 270 | Away | 44% | 75-77 | — | |
| Thu 12 Nov7 PM ET | at West Virginiarank 38 | Away | 3% | 59-83 | — |
Rooting guide
- Thu 5 Nov: at Virginia TechA win: 11% · a loss: 10%+1 pts
- Sat 7 Nov: at DavidsonA win: 10% · a loss: 10%0 pts
- Tue 10 Nov: at Georgia SouthernA win: 10% · a loss: 10%0 pts
- Thu 12 Nov: at West VirginiaA win: 5% · a loss: 10%−5 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinton Perkins IIG | 1 | 24.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | −2.1 | 0.0 |
| Brady ShouldersG | 1 | 22.0 | 5.0 | 13.0 | 2.0 | −0.6 | +0.6 |
| Karon BoydF · transfer from Wichita St | 1 | 21.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | +0.7 | +1.0 |
| Derek GoodmanG | 1 | 21.0 | 18.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | 0.0 |
| KJ LamonteG | 1 | 20.0 | 14.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | 0.0 |
| Makoi Mabor MakoiF · transfer from UNC Wilmington | 1 | 17.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | 0.0 |
| Shane CherryG | 1 | 17.0 | 21.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | −1.9 | +0.1 |
| Keelan SteeleF · transfer from Maine | 1 | 16.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | −2.5 | −0.1 |
| Ryder CateG | 1 | 15.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | −1.9 | +0.1 |
| Dawson BarrG | 1 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | −1.8 | +0.1 |
| Petras PadegimasF | 1 | 11.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −1.8 | +0.1 |
| Manos KoveosG | 1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.5 | 0.0 |
| Harrison LyttleG | 1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.5 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 50.4%rank 135 | 50.4%rank 155 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.5%rank 156 | 18.5%rank 135 | 18.5% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 31.8%rank 128 | 31.8%rank 161 | 31.8% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 25.3%rank 133 | 25.3%rank 155 | 25.3% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −7.8
- Last season's net rating
- −1.2
- Last season's minutes returning
- 24%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- +0.8
- Change since preseason
- 0.0
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 101.3 (rank 214)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 109.0 (rank 241)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 71.9 (rank 108)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- —
Southern Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Furman | 2-0 | 0-0 | −3.8 | 103.6 | 107.4 | 167 |
| 2 | East Tennessee State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −5.0 | 103.2 | 108.2 | 186 |
| 3 | Samford | 1-0 | 0-0 | −5.5 | 103.0 | 108.5 | 191 |
| 4 | Chattanooga | 0-2 | 0-0 | −5.6 | 106.4 | 112.0 | 193 |
| 5 | Wofford | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.7 | 103.0 | 109.7 | 213 |
| 6 | Mercer | 1-0 | 0-0 | −7.8 | 101.3 | 109.0 | 229 |
| 7 | Western Carolina | 0-1 | 0-0 | −8.6 | 100.5 | 109.1 | 240 |
| 8 | UNC Greensboro | 1-0 | 0-0 | −11.7 | 99.0 | 110.7 | 280 |
| 9 | Tennessee Tech | 1-1 | 0-0 | −11.8 | 101.8 | 113.6 | 281 |
| 10 | VMI | 1-0 | 0-0 | −17.9 | 96.3 | 114.2 | 336 |
| 11 | The Citadel | 0-1 | 0-0 | −23.4 | 93.0 | 116.4 | 361 |