Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles

Men's · Southern Conference · 1-1, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Western KY · Sun 8 Nov, 3 PM ET

Western KY65%35%Tennessee Tech

Projected 75-80 · Game page

Makes the tournament4%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.1

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 15-19

Net rating−11.8Rank 280 of 365 · offence 204, defence 337

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 15-19 (10 to 20 wins)
Projected conference record: 9-11
Wins or shares the conference title: 3%
Wins the conference tournament: 4%
Average seed if in the field: 15.1
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field4%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	at Mississippi Staterank 94	Away	3%	57-81	L 88-106	Right
Wed 4 Nov	vs Blue Mountain Christiannot Division I	Home	—	—	W 117-70
Sun 8 Nov3 PM ET	vs Western Kentuckyrank 133	Home	35%	75-80	—
Thu 12 Nov6:30 PM ET	at Indianarank 40	Away	1%	63-90	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 4% · the next 7 days

Sun 8 Nov: vs Western KentuckyA win: 3% · a loss: 4%0 pts
Thu 12 Nov: at IndianaA win: 5% · a loss: 3%+2 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Caleb SandersF · transfer from South Florida	2	27.5	20.0	7.5	3.0	−0.8	+0.6
Trent MosqueraG · transfer from Le Moyne	2	25.0	10.0	3.0	0.5	−2.2	−0.1
Ty OwensG	2	24.0	7.5	1.0	5.5	−4.1	−0.9
De'Ante GreenF	2	21.5	17.5	8.0	0.5	−2.6	−0.2
Cbo NewtonG · transfer from Abilene Chrstn	2	20.5	10.5	3.5	2.0	−2.5	−0.2
Kamai SamuelsG	2	17.5	10.0	2.5	2.5	−2.6	−0.2
Davante HackettG · transfer from Stonehill	2	15.0	7.5	2.0	1.0	−1.9	0.0
Shaun ArnoldF	2	14.0	3.5	3.5	4.0	−2.3	−0.1
Caleb HollenbeckG · transfer from Marshall	1	22.0	8.0	4.0	0.0	−3.0	−0.4
Mekhi TurnerF	2	8.0	2.0	2.0	0.0	−2.1	0.0
CohenJ GonzalesG	1	13.0	9.0	2.0	1.0	−2.0	0.0
Kyler FoxF	1	10.0	8.0	5.0	0.0	−2.0	0.0
Jake PampolinaG	1	4.0	3.0	1.0	1.0	−1.8	0.0
Harrison StewartG	1	4.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	−1.8	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	52.2%rank 34	52.6%rank 346	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	17.6%rank 31	19.1%rank 62	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.5%rank 220	32.7%rank 298	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	25.4%rank 121	27.1%rank 317	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 0.0 won, 0.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −12.7 points a game (they shot 50.0%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −2.0 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

2 games played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −15.0
Last season's net rating: −13.3
Last season's minutes returning: 17%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −4.9
Change since preseason: +3.2

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 101.7 (rank 204)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 113.5 (rank 337)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.6 (rank 155)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +7.0 (rank 91)

Southern Conference by rating

11 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Furman	2-0	0-0	−3.8	103.5	107.3	168
2	East Tennessee State	0-1	0-0	−5.0	103.1	108.1	186
3	Samford	1-0	0-0	−5.5	102.9	108.4	191
4	Wofford	0-1	0-0	−6.7	102.9	109.6	212
5	Mercer	1-0	0-0	−7.8	101.2	109.0	228
6	Chattanooga	0-1	0-0	−7.8	102.2	110.0	228
7	Western Carolina	0-1	0-0	−8.6	100.4	109.0	240
8	UNC Greensboro	1-0	0-0	−11.7	98.9	110.6	279
9	Tennessee Tech	1-1	0-0	−11.8	101.7	113.5	280
10	VMI	1-0	0-0	−17.9	96.2	114.1	336
11	The Citadel	0-1	0-0	−23.4	92.9	116.3	361