Furman Paladins
Next: vs Northern Iowa · Sat 7 Nov, 5 PM ETProjected 70-72 · Game page
Makes the tournament21%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.0
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 23-11
Net rating−3.8Rank 168 of 365 · offence 166, defence 183
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 23-11 (18 to 29 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 13-7
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 29%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 21%
- Average seed if in the field
- 14.0
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field21%
- Round of 321%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Bethune-Cookmanrank 329 | Neutral | 77% | 72-63 | W 79-70 | Right |
| Wed 4 Nov | vs Bob Jonesnot Division I | Home | — | — | W 121-52 | |
| Sat 7 Nov5 PM ET | vs Northern Iowarank 110 | Home | 45% | 70-72 | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov7 PM ET | at Holy Crossrank 348 | Away | 76% | 78-70 | — |
Rooting guide
- Sat 7 Nov: vs Northern IowaA win: 22% · a loss: 20%+2 pts
- Wed 11 Nov: at Holy CrossA win: 21% · a loss: 21%−1 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka ToewsG · transfer from Boston College | 2 | 23.5 | 8.5 | 3.0 | 5.5 | −1.2 | +0.3 |
| Charles JohnstonF | 2 | 23.5 | 14.5 | 9.0 | 3.0 | +1.2 | +1.4 |
| Marcus KellF · transfer from W Carolina | 2 | 22.5 | 12.5 | 3.0 | 2.0 | −0.3 | +0.7 |
| Tom HouseG | 2 | 22.0 | 19.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | −0.9 | +0.5 |
| Abijah FranklinG | 2 | 21.5 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | −1.6 | +0.2 |
| Cameron ElwerG | 2 | 17.5 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 5.5 | −1.4 | +0.2 |
| Collin O'NealG | 2 | 16.5 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −2.3 | −0.1 |
| Jordan ButlerF · transfer from South Carolina | 2 | 15.5 | 9.0 | 3.5 | 0.5 | +0.6 | +0.7 |
| Davis MolnarF | 2 | 12.0 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | −1.2 | +0.2 |
| Jerrin SamuelG | 1 | 18.0 | 11.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −1.0 | +0.3 |
| Jaxson BellG · transfer from Army | 1 | 16.0 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | −0.7 | +0.4 |
| Nikos KoulisianisF | 1 | 13.0 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | −0.9 | +0.3 |
| Nate WilbourneG | 1 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −0.7 | +0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 50.9%rank 101 | 50.3%rank 144 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.2%rank 98 | 18.0%rank 297 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 31.8%rank 123 | 30.8%rank 80 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 28.1%rank 21 | 24.4%rank 99 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 0.8 expected (+0.2)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −5.6 points a game (they shot 42.1%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −1.0 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −4.0
- Last season's net rating
- −1.3
- Last season's minutes returning
- 41%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −2.5
- Change since preseason
- +0.2
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 103.5 (rank 166)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 107.3 (rank 183)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 70.4 (rank 295)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −16.0 (rank 260)
Southern Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Furman | 2-0 | 0-0 | −3.8 | 103.5 | 107.3 | 168 |
| 2 | East Tennessee State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −5.0 | 103.1 | 108.1 | 186 |
| 3 | Samford | 1-0 | 0-0 | −5.5 | 102.9 | 108.4 | 191 |
| 4 | Wofford | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.7 | 102.9 | 109.6 | 212 |
| 5 | Mercer | 1-0 | 0-0 | −7.8 | 101.2 | 109.0 | 228 |
| 6 | Chattanooga | 0-1 | 0-0 | −7.8 | 102.2 | 110.0 | 228 |
| 7 | Western Carolina | 0-1 | 0-0 | −8.6 | 100.4 | 109.0 | 240 |
| 8 | UNC Greensboro | 1-0 | 0-0 | −11.7 | 98.9 | 110.6 | 279 |
| 9 | Tennessee Tech | 1-1 | 0-0 | −11.8 | 101.7 | 113.5 | 280 |
| 10 | VMI | 1-0 | 0-0 | −17.9 | 96.2 | 114.1 | 336 |
| 11 | The Citadel | 0-1 | 0-0 | −23.4 | 92.9 | 116.3 | 361 |