Wofford Terriers

Men's · Southern Conference · 0-1, 0-0 in conference · last L1

Next: at North Carolina · Fri 6 Nov, 7 PM ET

Wofford3%97%North Carolina

Projected 66-88 · Game page

Makes the tournament12%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.5

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 19-15

Net rating−6.7Rank 212 of 365 · offence 178, defence 257

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 19-15 (14 to 25 wins)
Projected conference record: 12-8
Wins or shares the conference title: 15%
Wins the conference tournament: 12%
Average seed if in the field: 14.5
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field12%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Tue 3 Nov	at Tennesseerank 7	Away	1%	59-91	L 59-90	Right
Fri 6 Nov7 PM ET	at North Carolinarank 44	Away	3%	66-88	—
Sun 8 Nov2 PM ET	vs Allennot Division I	Home	—	—	—
Wed 11 Nov6 PM ET	vs Voorheesnot Division I	Home	—	—	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 12% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: at North CarolinaA win: 12% · a loss: 12%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Luke FlynnG	1	31.0	4.0	2.0	2.0	−2.4	−0.2
Chace WatleyG	1	31.0	7.0	5.0	1.0	−1.9	+0.1
Cam LoweG	1	27.0	14.0	4.0	1.0	−1.0	+0.5
Chris AriasG · transfer from Jacksonville	1	25.0	10.0	1.0	1.0	−1.5	+0.3
Evan RamseyC	1	22.0	8.0	10.0	2.0	−0.9	+0.5
Cutter SiskF	1	20.0	10.0	2.0	2.0	−0.9	+0.4
Jacob DanielsG	1	16.0	2.0	1.0	2.0	−0.8	+0.4
Jyi DawkinsG	1	14.0	4.0	1.0	0.0	−0.7	+0.3
Misho KalinovG	1	7.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	−0.5	+0.2
Jhett CarterG	1	6.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	−0.5	+0.2
Davis MillerG	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−2.6	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	48.7%rank 334	50.8%rank 255	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	17.8%rank 52	18.2%rank 258	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	32.0%rank 110	31.6%rank 148	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	25.6%rank 107	24.2%rank 86	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 0.0 won, 0.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +1.3 points a game (they shot 30.4%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −4.0 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −7.0
Last season's net rating: −7.2
Last season's minutes returning: 32%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −1.0
Change since preseason: +0.4

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 102.9 (rank 178)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 109.6 (rank 257)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.7 (rank 140)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +27.7 (rank 6)

Southern Conference by rating

11 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Furman	2-0	0-0	−3.8	103.5	107.3	168
2	East Tennessee State	0-1	0-0	−5.0	103.1	108.1	186
3	Samford	1-0	0-0	−5.5	102.9	108.4	191
4	Wofford	0-1	0-0	−6.7	102.9	109.6	212
5	Mercer	1-0	0-0	−7.8	101.2	109.0	228
6	Chattanooga	0-1	0-0	−7.8	102.2	110.0	228
7	Western Carolina	0-1	0-0	−8.6	100.4	109.0	240
8	UNC Greensboro	1-0	0-0	−11.7	98.9	110.6	279
9	Tennessee Tech	1-1	0-0	−11.8	101.7	113.5	280
10	VMI	1-0	0-0	−17.9	96.2	114.1	336
11	The Citadel	0-1	0-0	−23.4	92.9	116.3	361