North Carolina Tar Heels

Men's · Atlantic Coast Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Wofford · Fri 6 Nov, 7 PM ET

Wofford3%97%North Carolina

Projected 88-66 · Game page

Makes the tournament45%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 7.0

Wins the national title<1%Final Four 1% · projected 20-13

Net rating+15.6Rank 44 of 365 · offence 47, defence 48

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 20-13 (14 to 26 wins)
Projected conference record: 10-9
Wins or shares the conference title: 1%
Wins the conference tournament: 3%
Average seed if in the field: 7.0
A 1 seed: <1%

Makes the field45%
Round of 3228%
Sweet 169%
Elite Eight3%
Final Four1%
Title game<1%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Western Carolinarank 240	Home	99%	83-55	W 80-72	Right
Fri 6 Nov7 PM ET	vs Woffordrank 212	Home	97%	88-66	—
Tue 10 Nov7 PM ET	vs Wyomingrank 119	Home	88%	83-68	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 45% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs WoffordA win: 45% · a loss: 44%+2 pts
Tue 10 Nov: vs WyomingA win: 46% · a loss: 41%+4 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Neo AvdalasG · transfer from Virginia Tech	1	31.0	13.0	7.0	4.0	+3.6	+3.1
Jarin StevensonF	1	30.0	8.0	2.0	0.0	+4.5	+3.5
Terrence BrownG · transfer from Utah	1	30.0	14.0	5.0	2.0	+4.6	+3.6
Matt AbleG · transfer from NC State	1	26.0	18.0	3.0	2.0	+4.8	+3.2
Sayon KeitaC	1	20.0	4.0	2.0	0.0	+0.3	+0.8
Maximo AdamsF	1	18.0	10.0	4.0	0.0	+0.4	+0.8
Jaydon YoungG	1	14.0	6.0	1.0	0.0	+2.7	+1.2
Alex SamodurovF	1	12.0	0.0	3.0	0.0	+0.5	+0.6
Angelo BrizziG · transfer from Buffalo	1	10.0	5.0	0.0	0.0	+2.8	+0.9
Isaiah DenisG	1	9.0	2.0	1.0	4.0	+3.4	+0.9

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	49.5%rank 287	49.9%rank 108	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.0%rank 69	17.2%rank 355	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	29.2%rank 359	32.8%rank 300	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	27.9%rank 25	27.8%rank 340	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −6.7 points a game (they shot 41.7%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −3.4 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +18.6
Last season's net rating: +22.0
Last season's minutes returning: 17%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +3.3
Change since preseason: −3.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 113.7 (rank 47)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 98.1 (rank 48)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.7 (rank 140)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −8.6 (rank 192)

Atlantic Coast Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Duke	1-0	0-0	+33.5	121.9	88.4	1
2	Louisville	1-0	0-0	+21.8	117.0	95.2	18
3	Virginia	1-0	0-0	+20.2	115.0	94.8	28
4	Miami	0-1	0-0	+20.1	116.0	95.9	31
5	North Carolina	1-0	0-0	+15.6	113.7	98.1	44
6	Clemson	1-0	0-0	+14.6	114.4	99.7	53
7	Florida State	1-0	0-0	+14.3	113.9	99.6	54
8	Notre Dame	1-0	0-0	+13.2	111.7	98.5	58
9	NC State	1-0	0-0	+12.7	112.5	99.8	62
10	Syracuse	1-0	0-0	+11.1	111.5	100.4	67
11	SMU	1-0	0-0	+10.6	110.9	100.3	73
12	Stanford	1-0	0-0	+10.2	111.4	101.2	76
13	Virginia Tech	1-0	0-0	+9.6	109.0	99.4	79
14	Pittsburgh	1-0	0-0	+7.6	107.9	100.3	88
15	Georgia Tech	1-0	0-0	+7.6	106.1	98.5	89
16	Wake Forest	1-0	0-0	+7.5	108.6	101.2	90
17	California	2-0	0-0	+4.5	107.1	102.6	105
18	Boston College	1-0	0-0	+3.9	105.4	101.5	109