Wyoming Cowboys

Men's · Mountain West Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Idaho St · Fri 6 Nov, 8:30 PM ET

Idaho St12%88%Wyoming

Projected 82-68 · Game page

Makes the tournament5%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 11.7

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 19-14

Net rating+2.3Rank 119 of 365 · offence 110, defence 120

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 19-14 (14 to 25 wins)
Projected conference record: 9-9
Wins or shares the conference title: 2%
Wins the conference tournament: 3%
Average seed if in the field: 11.7
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field5%
Round of 321%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Tue 3 Nov	vs Regis Universitynot Division I	Home	—	—	W 95-48
Fri 6 Nov8:30 PM ET	vs Idaho Staterank 263	Home	88%	82-68	—
Tue 10 Nov7 PM ET	at North Carolinarank 44	Away	12%	68-83	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 5% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs Idaho StateA win: 5% · a loss: 5%0 pts
Tue 10 Nov: at North CarolinaA win: 8% · a loss: 5%+3 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Uriyah RojasG	1	22.0	4.0	1.0	3.0	+1.8	+1.5
Nasir MeyerG	1	22.0	11.0	4.0	3.0	+3.4	+2.1
Mike MoraF	1	20.0	10.0	2.0	3.0	−0.7	+0.5
Madden SmileyG	1	20.0	6.0	8.0	1.0	−0.8	+0.5
Khaden BennettG	1	19.0	15.0	6.0	3.0	+3.3	+1.8
Parker GerritsG · transfer from Washington St	1	17.0	12.0	3.0	1.0	−0.1	+0.6
Gavin GoresF	1	17.0	10.0	5.0	0.0	+2.2	+1.3
Canin JeffersonG · transfer from North Alabama	1	15.0	9.0	0.0	4.0	−2.4	−0.1
Neil SummersF	1	13.0	4.0	4.0	1.0	−0.6	+0.3
Renars SondorsF · transfer from UL Monroe	1	12.0	4.0	0.0	0.0	−3.1	−0.2
Linus RufC	1	10.0	10.0	3.0	0.0	−0.5	+0.3
Mattia De MartinG	1	7.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	−0.4	+0.2
Kelan GruverG	1	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−0.3	+0.1
Chris PohlF	1	3.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	−0.3	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.4%rank 135	50.4%rank 155	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.5%rank 156	18.5%rank 135	18.5%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.8%rank 128	31.8%rank 161	31.8%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	25.3%rank 133	25.3%rank 155	25.3%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +2.3
Last season's net rating: +8.3
Last season's minutes returning: 43%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −4.7
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 106.6 (rank 110)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 104.3 (rank 120)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 70.9 (rank 236)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

Mountain West Conference by rating

10 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	New Mexico	1-0	0-0	+15.4	112.6	97.3	46
2	Nevada	1-0	0-0	+14.0	112.4	98.4	57
3	Grand Canyon	1-0	0-0	+10.9	111.2	100.3	69
4	UNLV	1-0	0-0	+5.7	109.8	104.1	100
5	Wyoming	1-0	0-0	+2.3	106.6	104.3	119
6	San José State	1-0	0-0	−1.3	106.0	107.3	141
7	Hawai'i	1-0	0-0	−2.2	102.1	104.3	148
8	UC Davis	0-1	0-0	−6.3	100.2	106.4	203
9	UTEP	0-1	0-0	−10.8	99.7	110.5	267
10	Air Force	0-1	0-0	−13.6	98.6	112.2	299