New Mexico Lobos

Men's · Mountain West Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs N Arizona · Sat 7 Nov, 6 PM ET

N Arizona2%98%New Mexico

Projected 89-64 · Game page

Makes the tournament65%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 9.3

Wins the national title<1%Final Four 1% · projected 27-6

Net rating+15.4Rank 46 of 365 · offence 56, defence 37

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 27-6 (22 to 31 wins)
Projected conference record: 15-3
Wins or shares the conference title: 52%
Wins the conference tournament: 38%
Average seed if in the field: 9.3
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field65%
Round of 3228%
Sweet 166%
Elite Eight2%
Final Four1%
Title game<1%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Utah Techrank 284	Home	97%	81-57	W 100-60	Right
Sat 7 Nov6 PM ET	vs Northern Arizonarank 260	Home	98%	89-64	—
Tue 10 Nov9 PM ET	vs Little Rockrank 266	Home	98%	88-63	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 65% · the next 7 days

Sat 7 Nov: vs Northern ArizonaA win: 65% · a loss: 63%+2 pts
Tue 10 Nov: vs Little RockA win: 65% · a loss: 64%+2 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Tunde Vahlberg FasasiF · transfer from William & Mary	1	32.0	17.0	3.0	3.0	+3.0	+3.0
Uriah TenetteG	1	30.0	19.0	3.0	2.0	+4.5	+3.6
Jake HallG	1	27.0	30.0	3.0	1.0	+5.6	+3.8
Chris HowellG	1	23.0	5.0	7.0	4.0	+3.6	+2.4
Hudson MayesG · transfer from UC San Diego	1	23.0	14.0	3.0	3.0	+4.6	+2.8
Dax HallG	1	23.0	6.0	2.0	4.0	+0.6	+1.1
Benjamin SchuchF	1	20.0	3.0	9.0	2.0	+0.6	+1.0
Federico GraniF	1	12.0	6.0	7.0	0.0	+0.8	+0.6
Fynn LastringF	1	10.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	+0.9	+0.5

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	52.4%rank 25	49.8%rank 98	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	19.0%rank 276	18.3%rank 244	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	30.9%rank 274	29.7%rank 24	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	25.7%rank 101	24.0%rank 74	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +11.0 points a game (they shot 21.2%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +0.6 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +13.8
Last season's net rating: +17.5
Last season's minutes returning: 33%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +0.9
Change since preseason: +1.6

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 112.6 (rank 56)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 97.2 (rank 37)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 73.0 (rank 28)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −12.5 (rank 222)

Mountain West Conference by rating

10 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	New Mexico	1-0	0-0	+15.4	112.6	97.2	46
2	Nevada	1-0	0-0	+14.0	112.4	98.3	57
3	Grand Canyon	1-0	0-0	+10.9	111.2	100.2	70
4	UNLV	1-0	0-0	+5.7	109.7	104.0	99
5	Wyoming	1-0	0-0	+2.3	106.5	104.2	119
6	San José State	1-0	0-0	−1.3	105.9	107.3	141
7	Hawai'i	1-0	0-0	−2.2	102.1	104.2	148
8	UC Davis	0-1	0-0	−6.3	100.1	106.4	202
9	UTEP	0-1	0-0	−10.8	99.6	110.4	267
10	Air Force	0-1	0-0	−13.6	98.5	112.2	298