San José State Spartans
Makes the tournament2%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 12.0
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 16-16
Net rating−1.3Rank 141 of 365 · offence 122, defence 182
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 16-16 (12 to 21 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 8-10
- Wins or shares the conference title
- <1%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 1%
- Average seed if in the field
- 12.0
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field2%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs UTSArank 315 | Home | 82% | 74-62 | W 95-74 | Right |
| Sat 7 Nov10 PM ET | at UC Irvinerank 108 | Away | 24% | 70-78 | — | |
| Thu 12 Nov10 PM ET | vs UC Riversiderank 235 | Home | 78% | 81-71 | — |
Rooting guide
- Sat 7 Nov: at UC IrvineA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
- Thu 12 Nov: vs UC RiversideA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey ChammaaG · transfer from Arkansas St | 1 | 36.0 | 27.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | +0.8 | +1.8 |
| Mekhi MasonG · transfer from Wake Forest | 1 | 31.0 | 26.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | +0.8 | +1.6 |
| JaVaughn HannahG | 1 | 29.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | −3.0 | −0.5 |
| Robert VaiholaF · transfer from Minnesota | 1 | 27.0 | 13.0 | 11.0 | 1.0 | +0.5 | +1.2 |
| Mookie CookF · transfer from San Francisco | 1 | 20.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | +0.5 | +0.9 |
| KJ Martin Jr.F · transfer from Tulsa | 1 | 20.0 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | +0.5 | +0.9 |
| Oliver KullamaeG | 1 | 15.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −1.7 | +0.1 |
| Zine Eddine BedriF · transfer from Columbia | 1 | 13.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | +0.2 |
| Rokiem GreenG | 1 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.5 | +0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 52.4%rank 26 | 51.6%rank 307 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 20.7%rank 361 | 18.2%rank 271 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 33.6%rank 30 | 30.8%rank 81 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 26.0%rank 84 | 23.6%rank 59 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 0.8 expected (+0.2)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −3.0 points a game (they shot 35.3%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +0.9 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −3.4
- Last season's net rating
- −5.7
- Last season's minutes returning
- 8%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- +2.4
- Change since preseason
- +2.0
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 105.9 (rank 122)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 107.3 (rank 182)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 70.7 (rank 265)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −15.2 (rank 249)
Mountain West Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Mexico | 1-0 | 0-0 | +15.4 | 112.6 | 97.2 | 46 |
| 2 | Nevada | 1-0 | 0-0 | +14.0 | 112.4 | 98.3 | 57 |
| 3 | Grand Canyon | 1-0 | 0-0 | +10.9 | 111.2 | 100.2 | 70 |
| 4 | UNLV | 1-0 | 0-0 | +5.7 | 109.7 | 104.0 | 99 |
| 5 | Wyoming | 1-0 | 0-0 | +2.3 | 106.5 | 104.2 | 119 |
| 6 | San José State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.3 | 105.9 | 107.3 | 141 |
| 7 | Hawai'i | 1-0 | 0-0 | −2.2 | 102.1 | 104.2 | 148 |
| 8 | UC Davis | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.3 | 100.1 | 106.4 | 202 |
| 9 | UTEP | 0-1 | 0-0 | −10.8 | 99.6 | 110.4 | 267 |
| 10 | Air Force | 0-1 | 0-0 | −13.6 | 98.5 | 112.2 | 298 |