Nevada Wolf Pack

Men's · Mountain West Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Saint Mary's · Sun 8 Nov, 4:30 PM ET

Saint Mary's51%49%Nevada

Projected 74-74 · Game page

Makes the tournament53%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 9.9

Wins the national title<1%Final Four <1% · projected 28-7

Net rating+14.0Rank 57 of 365 · offence 62, defence 51

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 28-7 (23 to 32 wins)
Projected conference record: 14-4
Wins or shares the conference title: 39%
Wins the conference tournament: 31%
Average seed if in the field: 9.9
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field53%
Round of 3220%
Sweet 164%
Elite Eight1%
Final Four<1%
Title game<1%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Robert Morrisrank 203	Home	81%	72-62	W 86-49	Right
Sun 8 Nov4:30 PM ET	vs Saint Mary'srank 55	Neutral	49%	74-74	—
Wed 11 Nov9 PM ET	at UC Santa Barbararank 125	Away	70%	78-71	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 53% · the next 7 days

Sun 8 Nov: vs Saint Mary'sA win: 56% · a loss: 50%+7 pts
Wed 11 Nov: at UC Santa BarbaraA win: 55% · a loss: 49%+5 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Styles PhippsG · transfer from Pepperdine	1	24.0	13.0	8.0	5.0	+2.1	+1.8
Peter BandeljG · transfer from Cal Poly	1	24.0	9.0	1.0	4.0	+2.2	+1.8
TJ CoulterG	1	22.0	14.0	7.0	1.0	+0.7	+1.1
Vaughn WeemsG	1	21.0	13.0	4.0	3.0	+5.1	+2.7
Peyton WhiteG	1	21.0	4.0	1.0	2.0	+2.3	+1.6
Elijah PriceF	1	20.0	19.0	7.0	1.0	+7.0	+3.2
Simon MajokC · transfer from Memphis	1	19.0	8.0	4.0	1.0	+2.0	+1.4
Myles WalkerG	1	16.0	2.0	1.0	4.0	+2.6	+1.3
SJ MadisonG	1	13.0	2.0	3.0	1.0	+0.8	+0.7
Cedric LathC · transfer from Houston	1	9.0	0.0	3.0	0.0	+4.8	+1.1
Hudson LucasF	1	6.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	+1.1	+0.3
Kade SnyderF	1	5.0	2.0	2.0	0.0	+1.1	+0.3

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	49.9%rank 249	48.1%rank 18	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	17.9%rank 60	19.7%rank 26	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	34.4%rank 15	32.0%rank 252	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	23.8%rank 303	28.0%rank 345	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.8 expected (+0.2)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +8.4 points a game (they shot 16.7%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −4.1 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +8.4
Last season's net rating: +12.2
Last season's minutes returning: 36%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −1.9
Change since preseason: +5.6

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 112.4 (rank 62)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 98.4 (rank 51)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 70.7 (rank 262)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −6.3 (rank 169)

Mountain West Conference by rating

10 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	New Mexico	1-0	0-0	+15.4	112.6	97.2	46
2	Nevada	1-0	0-0	+14.0	112.4	98.4	57
3	Grand Canyon	1-0	0-0	+10.9	111.2	100.2	70
4	UNLV	1-0	0-0	+5.6	109.7	104.1	100
5	Wyoming	1-0	0-0	+2.3	106.5	104.2	119
6	San José State	1-0	0-0	−1.4	105.9	107.3	141
7	Hawai'i	1-0	0-0	−2.2	102.1	104.3	148
8	UC Davis	0-1	0-0	−6.3	100.1	106.4	202
9	UTEP	0-1	0-0	−10.8	99.6	110.4	267
10	Air Force	0-1	0-0	−13.6	98.6	112.2	298