Saint Mary's Gaels

Men's · West Coast Conference · 2-0, 0-0 in conference · last W2

Next: vs Nevada · Sun 8 Nov, 4:30 PM ET

Saint Mary's51%49%Nevada

Projected 74-74 · Game page

Makes the tournament60%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 10.2

Wins the national title<1%Final Four <1% · projected 27-6

Net rating+14.2Rank 55 of 365 · offence 43, defence 69

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 27-6 (23 to 31 wins)
Projected conference record: 13-3
Wins or shares the conference title: 60%
Wins the conference tournament: 45%
Average seed if in the field: 10.2
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field60%
Round of 3221%
Sweet 165%
Elite Eight2%
Final Four<1%
Title game<1%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Illinois Staterank 123	Home	85%	73-60	W 90-85	Right
Wed 4 Nov	vs North Dakota Staterank 195	Home	92%	83-65	W 105-64	Right
Sun 8 Nov4:30 PM ET	vs Nevadarank 57	Neutral	51%	74-74	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 60% · the next 7 days

Sun 8 Nov: vs NevadaA win: 63% · a loss: 58%+4 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Mantas JuzenasG	2	33.5	14.5	11.0	5.0	+3.1	+3.0
Joshua DentG	2	32.0	12.0	2.5	4.0	+4.9	+3.9
Jeremy Dent-SmithG · transfer from Stanford	2	22.0	8.0	1.5	3.5	+2.8	+1.9
Darius BivinsG	2	22.0	11.5	1.5	4.5	+0.4	+0.9
Vangelis ZougrisF · transfer from Louisville	2	22.0	13.5	4.5	2.0	+4.3	+2.4
Rory HawkeG	2	20.0	8.0	2.0	1.0	+2.3	+1.5
Thomas NdongF · transfer from CA Baptist	2	17.0	9.0	3.0	1.0	+4.1	+1.8
Jazz GardnerC	2	13.5	5.5	1.0	1.5	+0.7	+0.7
Kevin GadF	2	9.5	5.5	1.0	0.5	+2.9	+0.8
Luke FennellG · transfer from Syracuse	2	8.5	4.5	2.0	1.0	+1.7	+0.6
Flynn PavelyC	1	9.0	2.0	1.0	1.0	+1.1	+0.5
Cooper LewisG	1	9.0	6.0	2.0	0.0	+1.1	+0.5
Trent MacLeanF	1	5.0	3.0	0.0	0.0	+1.2	+0.3
Sam CurvyNA	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+1.3	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	54.0%rank 3	51.8%rank 319	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	17.7%rank 44	18.3%rank 249	18.5%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	30.8%rank 293	32.5%rank 279	31.8%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	22.7%rank 346	26.0%rank 274	25.3%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 2.0 won, 1.8 expected (+0.2)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −2.8 points a game (they shot 36.0%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: 0.0 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: 1-0

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

2 games played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +12.7
Last season's net rating: +22.3
Last season's minutes returning: 27%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +3.4
Change since preseason: +1.5

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 114.3 (rank 43)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 100.0 (rank 69)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 70.0 (rank 325)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −2.3 (rank 129)

West Coast Conference by rating

10 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Saint Mary's	2-0	0-0	+14.2	114.3	100.0	55
2	Santa Clara	2-0	0-0	+12.4	113.2	100.9	64
3	San Francisco	1-0	0-0	+2.5	105.7	103.2	117
4	Seattle U	0-1	0-0	+2.5	102.8	100.3	118
5	Pepperdine	0-1	0-0	−3.1	103.7	106.7	158
6	Loyola Marymount	0-1	0-0	−4.5	104.1	108.6	180
7	Pacific	1-0	0-0	−5.4	101.8	107.2	189
8	Denver	0-1	0-0	−6.9	102.7	109.6	215
9	San Diego	1-0	0-0	−7.2	101.4	108.6	220
10	Portland	1-0	0-0	−8.2	100.7	108.9	236