Pepperdine Waves
Next: vs La Sierra · Thu 5 Nov, 10:30 PM ET
Not rated: the opponent is outside Division I.
Makes the tournament2%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.2
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 17-16
Net rating−3.0Rank 158 of 365 · offence 162, defence 170
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 17-16 (12 to 22 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 7-10
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 1%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 2%
- Average seed if in the field
- 13.2
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field2%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Cornellrank 177 | Away | 22% | 68-78 | L 85-86 | Right |
| Thu 5 Nov10:30 PM ET | vs La Sierranot Division I | Home | — | — | — | |
| Sat 7 Nov9 PM ET | vs Bethesdanot Division I | Home | — | — | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov7:30 PM ET | at Sam Houstonrank 147 | Away | 32% | 75-80 | — |
Rooting guide
- Wed 11 Nov: at Sam HoustonA win: 1% · a loss: 1%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petar MajstorovicF · transfer from Long Beach St | 1 | 33.0 | 15.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.5 | +1.5 |
| Evan HaywoodG · transfer from Butler | 1 | 32.0 | 14.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | −0.1 | +1.1 |
| Jahari WilliamsonG · transfer from Kent State | 1 | 26.0 | 13.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | −0.5 | +0.7 |
| Will McClendonG · transfer from North Texas | 1 | 25.0 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | −0.5 | +0.7 |
| Alex ConstanzaF | 1 | 22.0 | 25.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 | −1.7 | +0.1 |
| Anthony RobinsonF · transfer from Xavier | 1 | 20.0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | −0.5 | +0.6 |
| Oliver KandenF | 1 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −1.8 | +0.1 |
| Anto BalianG | 1 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −1.5 | +0.1 |
| Youri FritzF · transfer from Northeastern | 1 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | −0.5 | +0.3 |
| Ethan MeuserF · transfer from Stonehill | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −2.1 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 51.2%rank 77 | 51.6%rank 307 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 17.9%rank 56 | 19.5%rank 38 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 34.2%rank 21 | 31.1%rank 104 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 26.5%rank 66 | 21.9%rank 4 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.2 expected (−0.2)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −13.9 points a game (they shot 48.3%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +0.9 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- 0-1
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −7.1
- Last season's net rating
- −9.8
- Last season's minutes returning
- 5%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −1.9
- Change since preseason
- +4.1
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 103.6 (rank 162)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 106.7 (rank 170)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 72.3 (rank 73)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −4.4 (rank 152)
West Coast Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saint Mary's | 2-0 | 0-0 | +14.2 | 114.2 | 100.0 | 55 |
| 2 | Santa Clara | 2-0 | 0-0 | +12.3 | 113.2 | 100.8 | 64 |
| 3 | San Francisco | 1-0 | 0-0 | +2.5 | 105.7 | 103.2 | 117 |
| 4 | Seattle U | 0-1 | 0-0 | +2.5 | 102.7 | 100.2 | 118 |
| 5 | Pepperdine | 0-1 | 0-0 | −3.0 | 103.6 | 106.7 | 158 |
| 6 | Loyola Marymount | 0-1 | 0-0 | −4.5 | 104.0 | 108.6 | 181 |
| 7 | Pacific | 1-0 | 0-0 | −5.4 | 101.7 | 107.1 | 189 |
| 8 | Denver | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.9 | 102.7 | 109.5 | 214 |
| 9 | San Diego | 1-0 | 0-0 | −7.2 | 101.3 | 108.5 | 219 |
| 10 | Portland | 1-0 | 0-0 | −8.2 | 100.7 | 108.8 | 236 |