Pacific Tigers

Men's · West Coast Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at Bradley · Sat 7 Nov, 8 PM ET

Pacific25%75%Bradley

Projected 69-77 · Game page

Makes the tournament1%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.2

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 14-19

Net rating−5.4Rank 189 of 365 · offence 206, defence 177

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 14-19 (9 to 20 wins)
Projected conference record: 6-10
Wins or shares the conference title: 1%
Wins the conference tournament: 1%
Average seed if in the field: 13.2
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field1%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Tue 3 Nov	vs Bethesdanot Division I	Home	—	—	W 102-47
Sat 7 Nov8 PM ET	at Bradleyrank 129	Away	25%	69-77	—
Wed 11 Nov10 PM ET	at Long Beach Staterank 245	Away	45%	72-73	—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: 1% · the next 7 days

Sat 7 Nov: at BradleyA win: <1% · a loss: 1%0 pts
Wed 11 Nov: at Long Beach StateA win: 1% · a loss: 1%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Gavin RippF · transfer from San Diego	1	26.0	12.0	8.0	2.0	−3.1	−0.5
Adriel NyorhaG · transfer from South Florida	1	26.0	15.0	6.0	5.0	+0.9	+1.3
Jaylen ThompsonF · transfer from Stanford	1	25.0	21.0	7.0	0.0	−0.8	+0.6
CJ JonesG · transfer from Kansas St	1	21.0	7.0	3.0	7.0	−1.3	+0.3
Dominick HarrisG · transfer from Loyola Chicago	1	18.0	7.0	4.0	1.0	−4.2	−0.7
Jaden WinstonG · transfer from Manhattan	1	17.0	7.0	1.0	7.0	−1.5	+0.2
Jacob McFarlandC · transfer from Houston	1	16.0	8.0	6.0	0.0	+2.2	+1.2
Jaion PittF	1	16.0	14.0	3.0	5.0	+0.9	+0.8
Jorge CarotF	1	15.0	4.0	7.0	0.0	−1.8	+0.1
Damarion Vann-KellyG	1	13.0	5.0	4.0	1.0	−1.8	+0.1
Nishayne SharpeG	1	4.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	−1.5	0.0
Noah BuduG	1	3.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	−1.5	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.4%rank 135	50.4%rank 155	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.6%rank 156	18.6%rank 134	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.7%rank 128	31.7%rank 162	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	25.2%rank 131	25.2%rank 153	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −5.4
Last season's net rating: +4.8
Last season's minutes returning: 9%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −2.9
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 101.7 (rank 206)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 107.1 (rank 177)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 70.2 (rank 310)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

West Coast Conference by rating

10 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Saint Mary's	2-0	0-0	+14.2	114.2	100.0	55
2	Santa Clara	2-0	0-0	+12.3	113.2	100.8	64
3	San Francisco	1-0	0-0	+2.5	105.7	103.2	117
4	Seattle U	0-1	0-0	+2.5	102.7	100.2	118
5	Pepperdine	0-1	0-0	−3.0	103.6	106.7	158
6	Loyola Marymount	0-1	0-0	−4.5	104.0	108.6	181
7	Pacific	1-0	0-0	−5.4	101.7	107.1	189
8	Denver	0-1	0-0	−6.9	102.7	109.5	214
9	San Diego	1-0	0-0	−7.2	101.3	108.5	219
10	Portland	1-0	0-0	−8.2	100.7	108.8	236