Long Beach State Beach
Next: at Montana St · Sat 7 Nov, 3 PM ETProjected 67-80 · Game page
Makes the tournament1%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.6
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 11-22
Net rating−9.1Rank 244 of 365 · offence 279, defence 192
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 11-22 (5 to 17 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 8-14
- Wins or shares the conference title
- <1%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 1%
- Average seed if in the field
- 14.6
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field1%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Utahrank 90 | Away | 5% | 58-79 | L 63-66 | Right |
| Sat 7 Nov3 PM ET | at Montana Staterank 120 | Away | 15% | 67-80 | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov10 PM ET | vs Pacificrank 189 | Home | 53% | 72-72 | — |
Rooting guide
- Sat 7 Nov: at Montana StateA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
- Wed 11 Nov: vs PacificA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McCaden AdamsG | 1 | 33.0 | 21.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | −2.2 | −0.1 |
| JJ GrayG | 1 | 33.0 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −2.2 | −0.1 |
| Yohann SissokoG · transfer from FAU | 1 | 32.0 | 15.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | −1.3 | +0.5 |
| Max VanlaninghamF | 1 | 31.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −2.3 | −0.1 |
| Jack PayneG · transfer from Idaho | 1 | 27.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | −0.8 | +0.6 |
| Jaden TenganG | 1 | 15.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.8 | +0.1 |
| Christian JonesG | 1 | 13.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | 0.0 |
| Brett WrightF | 1 | 13.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | −1.8 | +0.1 |
| Henry LauF | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.5 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 50.7%rank 109 | 50.3%rank 240 | 50.1% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 17.6%rank 43 | 19.5%rank 30 | 18.5% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 29.7%rank 338 | 30.9%rank 94 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 25.3%rank 228 | 23.9%rank 64 | 25.6% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.1 expected (−0.1)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +1.2 points a game (they shot 29.4%, league 31.9%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +4.1 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- 0-1
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −11.6
- Last season's net rating
- −7.3
- Last season's minutes returning
- 5%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −0.1
- Change since preseason
- +2.5
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 98.4 (rank 279)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 107.4 (rank 192)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 71.7 (rank 110)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +7.4 (rank 78)
Big West Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UC San Diego | 1-0 | 0-0 | +4.2 | 105.5 | 101.3 | 108 |
| 2 | UC Irvine | 1-0 | 0-0 | +4.2 | 104.2 | 100.0 | 109 |
| 3 | Utah Valley | 1-0 | 0-0 | +3.4 | 106.0 | 102.6 | 113 |
| 4 | UC Santa Barbara | 1-0 | 0-0 | +0.1 | 106.2 | 106.1 | 127 |
| 5 | Cal Poly | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.0 | 106.1 | 107.1 | 136 |
| 6 | Cal State Northridge | 0-1 | 0-0 | −5.5 | 100.5 | 106.0 | 191 |
| 7 | California Baptist | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.1 | 98.5 | 104.6 | 199 |
| 8 | Cal State Fullerton | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.5 | 103.5 | 110.0 | 210 |
| 9 | UC Riverside | 1-0 | 0-0 | −8.2 | 100.4 | 108.5 | 233 |
| 10 | Long Beach State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −9.1 | 98.4 | 107.4 | 244 |
| 11 | Sacramento State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −10.2 | 99.7 | 109.9 | 254 |
| 12 | Cal State Bakersfield | 0-0 | 0-0 | −12.1 | 98.7 | 110.8 | 281 |