Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners
Next: vs Stanton · Thu 5 Nov, 9:30 PM ET
Not rated: the opponent is outside Division I.
Makes the tournament<1%From 20,000 simulated seasons
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 11-22
Net rating−12.1Rank 283 of 365 · offence 273, defence 292
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 11-22 (6 to 17 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 6-16
- Wins or shares the conference title
- <1%
- Wins the conference tournament
- <1%
- Average seed if in the field
- —
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field<1%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 5 Nov9:30 PM ET | vs Stantonnot Division I | Home | — | — | — | |
| Sun 8 Nov6 PM ET | vs North Dakota Staterank 194 | Home | 48% | 77-78 | — | |
| Thu 12 Nov7 PM ET | at Western Illinoisrank 356 | Away | 62% | 77-74 | — |
Rooting guide
- Sun 8 Nov: vs North Dakota StateA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
- Thu 12 Nov: at Western IllinoisA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 50.4%rank 135 | 50.4%rank 156 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.5%rank 155 | 18.5%rank 133 | 18.5% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 31.8%rank 128 | 31.8%rank 162 | 31.8% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 25.1%rank 133 | 25.1%rank 154 | 25.1% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −12.1
- Last season's net rating
- −16.8
- Last season's minutes returning
- 6%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −0.1
- Change since preseason
- 0.0
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 98.8 (rank 273)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 110.9 (rank 292)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 72.9 (rank 30)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- —
Big West Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UC San Diego | 1-0 | 0-0 | +4.2 | 105.7 | 101.5 | 108 |
| 2 | UC Irvine | 1-0 | 0-0 | +4.2 | 104.4 | 100.2 | 109 |
| 3 | Utah Valley | 1-0 | 0-0 | +3.4 | 106.2 | 102.8 | 113 |
| 4 | UC Santa Barbara | 1-0 | 0-0 | +0.1 | 106.3 | 106.3 | 125 |
| 5 | Cal Poly | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.0 | 106.2 | 107.3 | 135 |
| 6 | Cal State Northridge | 0-1 | 0-0 | −5.4 | 100.7 | 106.1 | 189 |
| 7 | California Baptist | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.2 | 98.7 | 104.8 | 201 |
| 8 | Cal State Fullerton | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.4 | 103.8 | 110.2 | 206 |
| 9 | UC Riverside | 1-0 | 0-0 | −8.2 | 100.5 | 108.7 | 235 |
| 10 | Long Beach State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −8.9 | 98.6 | 107.5 | 245 |
| 11 | Sacramento State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −10.2 | 99.9 | 110.0 | 258 |
| 12 | Cal State Bakersfield | 0-0 | 0-0 | −12.1 | 98.8 | 110.9 | 283 |