Cal State Fullerton Titans
Next: at South Dakota · Sat 7 Nov, 2 PM ETProjected 83-83 · Game page
Makes the tournament2%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.7
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 15-19
Net rating−6.4Rank 206 of 365 · offence 159, defence 274
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 15-19 (9 to 21 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 9-13
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 1%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 2%
- Average seed if in the field
- 13.7
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field2%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 3 Nov | at San Diego Staterank 83 | Away | 10% | 69-85 | L 78-102 | Right |
| Sat 7 Nov2 PM ET | at South Dakotarank 288 | Away | 52% | 83-83 | — | |
| Thu 12 Nov9 PM ET | vs Lincoln (CA)not Division I | Home | — | — | — |
Rooting guide
- Sat 7 Nov: at South DakotaA win: 1% · a loss: 1%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua WardG | 1 | 31.0 | 22.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | +0.6 | +1.5 |
| Bailey NunnG | 1 | 27.0 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −2.1 | 0.0 |
| Matthew WillenborgG | 1 | 23.0 | 12.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | −1.7 | +0.1 |
| Anthony PongaG | 1 | 22.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −1.8 | +0.1 |
| Tiernan StynesG | 1 | 21.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | −1.8 | +0.1 |
| Christian WilliamsG | 1 | 20.0 | 12.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | −0.3 | +0.7 |
| Marley ZellerG | 1 | 18.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.7 | +0.1 |
| Rockwell ReynoldsF | 1 | 17.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | −1.6 | +0.1 |
| Malcolm BellG | 1 | 17.0 | 11.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −1.6 | +0.1 |
| Greg Howard Jr.G | 1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.2 | 0.0 |
| Henry BeckettG | 1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.2 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 50.4%rank 131 | 50.2%rank 136 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 16.8%rank 5 | 19.0%rank 70 | 18.5% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 31.3%rank 249 | 34.4%rank 348 | 31.8% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 25.1%rank 211 | 27.5%rank 333 | 25.1% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.1 expected (−0.1)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −1.7 points a game (they shot 34.8%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −4.6 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −5.9
- Last season's net rating
- −1.9
- Last season's minutes returning
- 49%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- 0.0
- Change since preseason
- −0.5
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 103.8 (rank 159)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 110.2 (rank 274)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 74.3 (rank 3)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +9.0 (rank 80)
Big West Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UC San Diego | 1-0 | 0-0 | +4.2 | 105.7 | 101.5 | 108 |
| 2 | UC Irvine | 1-0 | 0-0 | +4.2 | 104.4 | 100.2 | 109 |
| 3 | Utah Valley | 1-0 | 0-0 | +3.4 | 106.2 | 102.8 | 113 |
| 4 | UC Santa Barbara | 1-0 | 0-0 | +0.1 | 106.3 | 106.3 | 125 |
| 5 | Cal Poly | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.0 | 106.2 | 107.3 | 135 |
| 6 | Cal State Northridge | 0-1 | 0-0 | −5.4 | 100.7 | 106.1 | 189 |
| 7 | California Baptist | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.2 | 98.7 | 104.8 | 201 |
| 8 | Cal State Fullerton | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.4 | 103.8 | 110.2 | 206 |
| 9 | UC Riverside | 1-0 | 0-0 | −8.2 | 100.5 | 108.7 | 235 |
| 10 | Long Beach State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −8.9 | 98.6 | 107.5 | 245 |
| 11 | Sacramento State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −10.2 | 99.9 | 110.0 | 258 |
| 12 | Cal State Bakersfield | 0-0 | 0-0 | −12.1 | 98.8 | 110.9 | 283 |