San Diego State Aztecs

Men's · Pac-12 Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Colorado · Sat 7 Nov, 3:30 PM ET

San Diego St35%65%Colorado

Projected 76-81 · Game page

Makes the tournament14%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 10.1

Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 18-12

Net rating+9.0Rank 81 of 365 · offence 80, defence 91

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 18-12 (13 to 22 wins)
Projected conference record: 9-7
Wins or shares the conference title: 6%
Wins the conference tournament: 7%
Average seed if in the field: 10.1
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field14%
Round of 324%
Sweet 161%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four<1%
Title game<1%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Tue 3 Nov	vs Cal State Fullertonrank 208	Home	90%	85-69	W 102-78	Right
Sat 7 Nov3:30 PM ET	vs Coloradorank 52	Neutral	35%	76-81	—
Wed 11 Nov5 PM ET	vs Bethune-Cookmanrank 328	Home	98%	89-64	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 14% · the next 7 days

Sat 7 Nov: vs ColoradoA win: 17% · a loss: 13%+4 pts
Wed 11 Nov: vs Bethune-CookmanA win: 14% · a loss: 16%−2 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Chance GladdenG · transfer from Boston U	1	31.0	4.0	2.0	8.0	+1.2	+1.9
Latrell DavisG	1	29.0	25.0	4.0	3.0	+0.6	+1.4
Isaiah SyG · transfer from Oregon St	1	24.0	12.0	3.0	0.0	+1.9	+1.7
Bear CherryF · transfer from Sacramento St	1	23.0	15.0	7.0	0.0	+0.6	+1.1
Elzie HarringtonG	1	23.0	15.0	5.0	4.0	+3.8	+2.5
Tae SimmonsF	1	23.0	14.0	11.0	1.0	+5.0	+2.9
Luka SkoricF	1	18.0	6.0	3.0	0.0	+0.7	+0.9
Luca VinciniF	1	16.0	10.0	7.0	3.0	+0.8	+0.8
David TorresaniG	1	11.0	1.0	0.0	1.0	+0.9	+0.6
Thokbor MajakF	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+2.7	+0.1
Raymar GonzalesG	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+2.8	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.2%rank 228	50.4%rank 233	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	19.0%rank 289	16.8%rank 363	18.5%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	34.4%rank 17	31.3%rank 116	31.8%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	27.6%rank 36	25.3%rank 153	25.3%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.9 expected (+0.1)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +10.0 points a game (they shot 21.9%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +1.6 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +8.4
Last season's net rating: +16.0
Last season's minutes returning: 15%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −2.6
Change since preseason: +0.6

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 110.3 (rank 80)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 101.3 (rank 91)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.3 (rank 65)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −6.4 (rank 176)

Pac-12 Conference by rating

9 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Gonzaga	1-0	0-0	+20.5	115.7	95.2	27
2	Utah State	1-0	0-0	+15.1	114.9	99.8	51
3	Colorado State	1-0	0-0	+11.0	112.4	101.5	68
4	Boise State	1-0	0-0	+10.4	111.0	100.5	73
5	San Diego State	1-0	0-0	+9.0	110.3	101.3	81
6	Oregon State	1-0	0-0	+6.7	109.0	102.3	95
7	Texas State	1-0	0-0	−2.9	103.3	106.3	154
8	Fresno State	1-0	0-0	−3.3	102.4	105.7	161
9	Washington State	0-1	0-0	−4.2	102.5	106.7	173