Texas State Bobcats
Next: vs Howard Payne · Thu 5 Nov, 7 PM ET
Not rated: the opponent is outside Division I.
Makes the tournament1%From 20,000 simulated seasons
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 15-19
Net rating−2.9Rank 154 of 365 · offence 172, defence 161
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 15-19 (10 to 19 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 4-12
- Wins or shares the conference title
- <1%
- Wins the conference tournament
- <1%
- Average seed if in the field
- —
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field1%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Texas A&M-Corpus Christirank 232 | Home | 71% | 70-63 | W 67-55 | Right |
| Thu 5 Nov7 PM ET | vs Howard Paynenot Division I | Home | — | — | Live | |
| Tue 10 Nov7:30 PM ET | at UT Rio Grande Valleyrank 193 | Away | 43% | 72-74 | — |
Rooting guide
- Tue 10 Nov: at UT Rio Grande ValleyA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ HallF | 1 | 33.0 | 18.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | +1.4 | +2.0 |
| Robert FieldsC | 1 | 31.0 | 16.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −1.7 | +0.2 |
| Dimp PernellG | 1 | 28.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −2.4 | −0.2 |
| Kaden GumbsG | 1 | 27.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | −1.5 | +0.2 |
| Paul DjobetF · transfer from Omaha | 1 | 26.0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | +0.2 | +1.0 |
| Quel'Ron HouseG · transfer from S Illinois | 1 | 20.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | +1.9 | +1.4 |
| KJ YoungerG · transfer from UNC Greensboro | 1 | 11.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −0.7 | +0.3 |
| Kole GrandisonF | 1 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −1.4 | +0.1 |
| David AbisogunF | 1 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −1.4 | +0.1 |
| Caleb StegerG · transfer from Boston College | 1 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.5 | +0.1 |
| Ky PernellG | 1 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −3.7 | −0.1 |
| Ronald JessamyF · transfer from Bakersfield | 1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +0.5 | +0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 50.0%rank 242 | 50.2%rank 136 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 19.1%rank 287 | 19.0%rank 82 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 31.3%rank 247 | 32.8%rank 300 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 25.5%rank 115 | 24.9%rank 130 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 0.7 expected (+0.3)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +7.5 points a game (they shot 17.6%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −0.3 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −3.6
- Last season's net rating
- −7.8
- Last season's minutes returning
- 54%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −3.9
- Change since preseason
- +0.7
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 103.3 (rank 172)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 106.2 (rank 161)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 70.4 (rank 291)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −8.0 (rank 190)
Pac-12 Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gonzaga | 1-0 | 0-0 | +20.5 | 115.6 | 95.1 | 27 |
| 2 | Utah State | 1-0 | 0-0 | +15.1 | 114.8 | 99.8 | 51 |
| 3 | Colorado State | 1-0 | 0-0 | +10.9 | 112.4 | 101.4 | 69 |
| 4 | Boise State | 1-0 | 0-0 | +10.4 | 110.9 | 100.5 | 74 |
| 5 | San Diego State | 1-0 | 0-0 | +9.0 | 110.3 | 101.3 | 83 |
| 6 | Oregon State | 1-0 | 0-0 | +6.6 | 108.9 | 102.2 | 95 |
| 7 | Texas State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −2.9 | 103.3 | 106.2 | 154 |
| 8 | Fresno State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −3.3 | 102.3 | 105.6 | 161 |
| 9 | Washington State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −4.2 | 102.5 | 106.7 | 174 |