Oregon State Beavers

Men's · Pac-12 Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs CA Baptist · Fri 6 Nov, 9:30 PM ET

CA Baptist11%89%Oregon St

Projected 80-65 · Game page

Makes the tournament11%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 10.4

Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 21-13

Net rating+6.7Rank 96 of 365 · offence 89, defence 101

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 21-13 (16 to 26 wins)
Projected conference record: 8-8
Wins or shares the conference title: 3%
Wins the conference tournament: 4%
Average seed if in the field: 10.4
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field11%
Round of 323%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four<1%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Weber Staterank 281	Home	83%	74-62	W 102-61	Right
Fri 6 Nov9:30 PM ET	vs California Baptistrank 200	Home	89%	80-65	—
Mon 9 Nov9:30 PM ET	vs Eastern Washingtonrank 174	Home	86%	82-69	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 11% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs California BaptistA win: 11% · a loss: 10%+1 pts
Mon 9 Nov: vs Eastern WashingtonA win: 11% · a loss: 11%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Daniel FreitagG · transfer from Buffalo	1	26.0	23.0	7.0	2.0	+2.3	+2.0
Josiah Lake IIG	1	26.0	10.0	2.0	5.0	+1.9	+1.9
DeShawn GoryF · transfer from Fresno St	1	25.0	17.0	6.0	0.0	+2.5	+2.0
Xavion StatonC · transfer from BYU	1	24.0	10.0	13.0	1.0	+1.2	+1.4
Legend SmileyG · transfer from San Francisco	1	23.0	11.0	4.0	1.0	+0.3	+1.0
Chris JohnsonG · transfer from UCF	1	19.0	13.0	7.0	3.0	+2.6	+1.6
Jemai LakeG	1	16.0	10.0	2.0	2.0	−0.9	+0.3
Peteris PinnisF · transfer from Providence	1	15.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	+0.1	+0.6
Jackson RasmussenF · transfer from Idaho	1	8.0	3.0	4.0	0.0	+1.5	+0.5
Dennis EvansC · transfer from Grand Canyon	1	5.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	+3.7	+0.5
Yabi AklogC	1	5.0	2.0	2.0	1.0	−0.6	+0.1
Kahu TreacherF	1	5.0	1.0	2.0	0.0	−0.6	+0.1
Sean Blakely DrummondG · transfer from San Francisco	1	3.0	2.0	0.0	1.0	−0.7	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.5%rank 124	48.1%rank 15	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.2%rank 94	16.8%rank 363	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.1%rank 264	31.5%rank 143	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	28.0%rank 22	22.6%rank 18	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.8 expected (+0.2)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +15.9 points a game (they shot 17.1%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +1.3 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +2.5
Last season's net rating: −1.5
Last season's minutes returning: 17%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +2.2
Change since preseason: +4.2

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 108.9 (rank 89)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 102.2 (rank 101)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.2 (rank 208)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −12.0 (rank 220)

Pac-12 Conference by rating

9 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Gonzaga	1-0	0-0	+20.5	115.6	95.1	27
2	Utah State	1-0	0-0	+15.1	114.8	99.7	51
3	Colorado State	1-0	0-0	+11.0	112.3	101.4	69
4	Boise State	1-0	0-0	+10.4	110.9	100.4	74
5	San Diego State	1-0	0-0	+9.0	110.2	101.2	83
6	Oregon State	1-0	0-0	+6.7	108.9	102.2	96
7	Texas State	1-0	0-0	−2.9	103.3	106.2	154
8	Fresno State	1-0	0-0	−3.3	102.3	105.5	161
9	Washington State	0-1	0-0	−4.2	102.4	106.7	173