California Baptist Lancers
Makes the tournament2%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.3
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 14-20
Net rating−6.1Rank 199 of 365 · offence 277, defence 132
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 14-20 (9 to 20 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 10-12
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 1%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 2%
- Average seed if in the field
- 14.3
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field2%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 3 Nov | vs North Floridarank 277 | Home | 88% | 84-69 | L 63-71 | Wrong |
| Fri 6 Nov9:30 PM ET | at Oregon Staterank 94 | Away | 12% | 65-79 | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov10 PM ET | vs Chicago Staterank 353 | Home | 91% | 78-62 | — |
Rooting guide
- Fri 6 Nov: at Oregon StateA win: 1% · a loss: 1%0 pts
- Wed 11 Nov: vs Chicago StateA win: 1% · a loss: 1%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Coner Jr.G | 1 | 31.0 | 13.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | −1.6 | +0.2 |
| Jordan MullerG | 1 | 30.0 | 15.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | −1.6 | +0.2 |
| Ethan DuncanG · transfer from Lipscomb | 1 | 26.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −0.3 | +0.8 |
| Jonas ZilinskasF | 1 | 23.0 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | −1.5 | +0.2 |
| Steven Reynolds IIIG | 1 | 21.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −1.4 | +0.2 |
| Rene D'AmelioF | 1 | 19.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | +0.5 | +0.8 |
| Nick RichartF · transfer from Charlotte | 1 | 18.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −2.4 | −0.1 |
| Anton SafinF | 1 | 14.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −1.2 | +0.2 |
| Justas StonkusG | 1 | 11.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.2 | +0.2 |
| Odartey BlanksonG | 1 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | +0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 47.4%rank 356 | 51.3%rank 302 | 50.1% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 19.1%rank 299 | 19.0%rank 79 | 18.5% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 28.6%rank 359 | 31.6%rank 159 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 25.5%rank 205 | 25.0%rank 125 | 25.6% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.9 expected (−0.9)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +4.9 points a game (they shot 25.0%, league 31.9%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +1.4 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −2.1
- Last season's net rating
- +5.7
- Last season's minutes returning
- 13%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −0.3
- Change since preseason
- −4.0
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 98.5 (rank 277)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 104.6 (rank 132)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 71.0 (rank 207)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −11.4 (rank 221)
Big West Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UC San Diego | 1-0 | 0-0 | +4.2 | 105.5 | 101.3 | 108 |
| 2 | UC Irvine | 1-0 | 0-0 | +4.2 | 104.2 | 100.0 | 109 |
| 3 | Utah Valley | 1-0 | 0-0 | +3.4 | 106.0 | 102.6 | 113 |
| 4 | UC Santa Barbara | 1-0 | 0-0 | +0.1 | 106.2 | 106.1 | 127 |
| 5 | Cal Poly | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.0 | 106.1 | 107.1 | 136 |
| 6 | Cal State Northridge | 0-1 | 0-0 | −5.5 | 100.5 | 106.0 | 191 |
| 7 | California Baptist | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.1 | 98.5 | 104.6 | 199 |
| 8 | Cal State Fullerton | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.5 | 103.5 | 110.0 | 210 |
| 9 | UC Riverside | 1-0 | 0-0 | −8.2 | 100.4 | 108.5 | 233 |
| 10 | Long Beach State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −9.1 | 98.4 | 107.4 | 244 |
| 11 | Sacramento State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −10.2 | 99.7 | 109.9 | 254 |
| 12 | Cal State Bakersfield | 0-0 | 0-0 | −12.1 | 98.7 | 110.8 | 281 |