North Florida Ospreys
Makes the tournament5%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.9
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 15-18
Net rating−11.4Rank 277 of 365 · offence 257, defence 289
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 15-18 (10 to 20 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 6-8
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 4%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 5%
- Average seed if in the field
- 14.9
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field5%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
Rooting guide
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason WatkinsG | 1 | 32.0 | 13.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | −1.7 | +0.2 |
| Kent JacksonG | 1 | 28.0 | 15.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | −2.7 | −0.3 |
| Ayuba Bryant Jr.F · transfer from Temple | 1 | 28.0 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | −1.8 | +0.1 |
| JR BartelusG | 1 | 26.0 | 12.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −1.6 | +0.2 |
| Mason LeeG | 1 | 23.0 | 11.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | −2.8 | −0.3 |
| Elijah ElliottG · transfer from Ohio | 1 | 22.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | −2.7 | −0.3 |
| Eddie PlacerG · transfer from Wagner | 1 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −2.6 | −0.2 |
| BJ PlummerG | 1 | 14.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | −3.7 | −0.4 |
| Isaiah BrownF | 1 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.1 | +0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 51.3%rank 63 | 47.4%rank 9 | 50.1% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 19.0%rank 287 | 19.1%rank 68 | 18.5% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 31.6%rank 209 | 28.6%rank 5 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 25.0%rank 243 | 25.5%rank 156 | 25.6% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 0.1 expected (+0.9)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +13.8 points a game (they shot 14.8%, league 31.9%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −1.8 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −15.3
- Last season's net rating
- −17.7
- Last season's minutes returning
- 43%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −1.7
- Change since preseason
- +4.0
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 99.3 (rank 257)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 110.7 (rank 289)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 72.9 (rank 22)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −6.1 (rank 168)
Atlantic Sun Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Queens University | 2-0 | 0-0 | −2.6 | 110.2 | 112.9 | 152 |
| 2 | Florida Gulf Coast | 0-1 | 0-0 | −3.1 | 105.0 | 108.1 | 158 |
| 3 | Lipscomb | 0-2 | 0-0 | −3.3 | 101.9 | 105.2 | 162 |
| 4 | Jacksonville | 1-0 | 0-0 | −10.7 | 98.8 | 109.5 | 260 |
| 5 | West Florida | 1-0 | 0-0 | −11.0 | 99.0 | 110.0 | 272 |
| 6 | North Florida | 1-0 | 0-0 | −11.4 | 99.3 | 110.7 | 277 |
| 7 | Stetson | 0-2 | 0-0 | −14.2 | 101.6 | 115.8 | 306 |
| 8 | Bellarmine | 0-2 | 0-0 | −14.8 | 102.1 | 116.8 | 313 |