Bellarmine Knights
Makes the tournament2%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.5
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 12-21
Net rating−15.3Rank 317 of 365 · offence 246, defence 352
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 12-21 (7 to 17 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 4-10
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 1%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 2%
- Average seed if in the field
- 15.5
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field2%
- Round of 320%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Vanderbiltrank 14 | Away | 1% | 57-86 | L 47-93 | Right |
| Thu 5 Nov6 PM ET | at Indianarank 40 | Away | 1% | 61-90 | Live | |
| Sat 7 Nov5 PM ET | at Miami (OH)rank 102 | Away | 4% | 68-88 | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov7 PM ET | vs Franklinnot Division I | Home | — | — | — |
Rooting guide
- Thu 5 Nov: at IndianaA win: 2% · a loss: 1%+1 pts
- Sat 7 Nov: at Miami (OH)A win: 1% · a loss: 1%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyon GoodinG | 1 | 26.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −2.6 | −0.3 |
| Tyler DoyleG | 1 | 26.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | −2.7 | −0.3 |
| Sam DonaldF | 1 | 26.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | −3.1 | −0.5 |
| Grant WhitakerG | 1 | 25.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −4.9 | −1.2 |
| Jacob WasslerF | 1 | 20.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −4.2 | −0.8 |
| Julius GizziG | 1 | 20.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | −1.9 | 0.0 |
| Grant NealG | 1 | 19.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | −3.3 | −0.4 |
| Demarcus SurrattG | 1 | 18.0 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.9 | +0.1 |
| Tommy ClarkG | 1 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −3.6 | −0.2 |
| Mason DarrellG | 1 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.6 | +0.1 |
| Brady KlopfensteinF | 1 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.5 | 0.0 |
| Max MeagherG | 1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.4 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 50.0%rank 246 | 52.1%rank 329 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 20.5%rank 357 | 19.2%rank 54 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 30.2%rank 325 | 32.8%rank 302 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 24.6%rank 255 | 26.4%rank 294 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.0 expected (0.0)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −2.6 points a game (they shot 36.8%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −2.8 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −11.6
- Last season's net rating
- −10.4
- Last season's minutes returning
- 48%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- 0.0
- Change since preseason
- −3.7
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 100.2 (rank 246)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 115.5 (rank 352)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 70.3 (rank 306)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +24.1 (rank 13)
Atlantic Sun Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Queens University | 2-0 | 0-0 | −2.6 | 110.4 | 113.0 | 152 |
| 2 | Florida Gulf Coast | 0-1 | 0-0 | −3.0 | 105.2 | 108.2 | 156 |
| 3 | Lipscomb | 0-2 | 0-0 | −3.2 | 102.1 | 105.3 | 159 |
| 4 | Jacksonville | 1-0 | 0-0 | −10.7 | 98.9 | 109.6 | 264 |
| 5 | West Florida | 1-0 | 0-0 | −11.0 | 99.1 | 110.1 | 272 |
| 6 | North Florida | 1-0 | 0-0 | −11.3 | 99.5 | 110.8 | 275 |
| 7 | Stetson | 0-2 | 0-0 | −14.1 | 101.8 | 115.9 | 305 |
| 8 | Bellarmine | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.3 | 100.2 | 115.5 | 317 |