Lipscomb Bisons
Makes the tournament25%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.3
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 20-14
Net rating−3.2Rank 159 of 365 · offence 191, defence 142
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 20-14 (15 to 25 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 9-5
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 33%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 25%
- Average seed if in the field
- 14.3
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field25%
- Round of 321%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Southeast Missouri Staterank 231 | Away | 49% | 68-68 | L 79-86 | Right |
| Tue 3 Nov | at Iowarank 20 | Away | 3% | 63-86 | L 54-76 | Right |
| Sat 7 Nov5 PM ET | vs SIU Edwardsvillerank 269 | Home | 80% | 77-67 | — | |
| Tue 10 Nov8 PM ET | vs Belmontrank 111 | Home | 46% | 75-76 | — |
Rooting guide
- Sat 7 Nov: vs SIU EdwardsvilleA win: 25% · a loss: 26%0 pts
- Tue 10 Nov: vs BelmontA win: 26% · a loss: 25%+1 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateo EsmeraldoG | 2 | 32.5 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | +0.4 | +1.4 |
| Takai SimpkinsG · transfer from Oregon | 2 | 31.5 | 20.0 | 3.5 | 0.5 | +0.8 | +1.6 |
| Titas SargiunasF | 2 | 24.5 | 9.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | −1.4 | +0.3 |
| Devyn MartinF | 2 | 18.5 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 0.5 | −1.2 | +0.3 |
| Hugo TidareG | 2 | 18.5 | 6.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | −1.4 | +0.2 |
| Truman ByrneF · transfer from C Arkansas | 2 | 17.0 | 1.5 | 7.0 | 0.0 | −1.6 | +0.1 |
| Kennedy OkparaF | 2 | 14.5 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −1.1 | +0.2 |
| Josh ScottF | 2 | 11.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.1 | +0.2 |
| Luke JackF | 2 | 10.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | −1.0 | +0.2 |
| Vuk VisnjicG | 2 | 7.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | −0.8 | +0.2 |
| Sawyer DotsonF | 2 | 6.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | −0.8 | +0.1 |
| Hendrix LoughridgeF | 1 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.6 | +0.2 |
| Zion WellsG | 1 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.6 | +0.2 |
| Or AshkenaziF | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.5 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 50.0%rank 245 | 50.0%rank 118 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.9%rank 260 | 18.1%rank 275 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 30.0%rank 333 | 31.2%rank 114 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 29.1%rank 7 | 21.5%rank 3 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.5 expected (−0.5)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −3.7 points a game (they shot 37.8%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +2.6 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −3.1
- Last season's net rating
- −2.3
- Last season's minutes returning
- 43%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- +1.2
- Change since preseason
- −0.1
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 102.1 (rank 191)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 105.3 (rank 142)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 72.3 (rank 77)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +6.8 (rank 93)
Atlantic Sun Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Queens University | 2-0 | 0-0 | −2.6 | 110.4 | 113.0 | 152 |
| 2 | Florida Gulf Coast | 0-1 | 0-0 | −3.0 | 105.2 | 108.2 | 156 |
| 3 | Lipscomb | 0-2 | 0-0 | −3.2 | 102.1 | 105.3 | 159 |
| 4 | Jacksonville | 1-0 | 0-0 | −10.7 | 98.9 | 109.6 | 264 |
| 5 | West Florida | 1-0 | 0-0 | −11.0 | 99.1 | 110.1 | 272 |
| 6 | North Florida | 1-0 | 0-0 | −11.3 | 99.5 | 110.8 | 275 |
| 7 | Stetson | 0-2 | 0-0 | −14.1 | 101.8 | 115.9 | 305 |
| 8 | Bellarmine | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.3 | 100.2 | 115.5 | 317 |