Iowa Hawkeyes

Men's · Big Ten Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs E Illinois · Fri 6 Nov, 8:30 PM ET

E Illinois0%100%Iowa

Projected 87-55 · Game page

Makes the tournament75%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 5.5

Wins the national title1%Final Four 5% · projected 22-11

Net rating+21.5Rank 20 of 365 · offence 19, defence 30

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 22-11 (17 to 27 wins)
Projected conference record: 12-8
Wins or shares the conference title: 4%
Wins the conference tournament: 5%
Average seed if in the field: 5.5
A 1 seed: 3%

Makes the field75%
Round of 3258%
Sweet 1628%
Elite Eight12%
Final Four5%
Title game2%
Champion1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Tue 3 Nov	vs Lipscombrank 159	Home	97%	86-63	W 76-54	Right
Fri 6 Nov8:30 PM ET	vs Eastern Illinoisrank 329	Home	100%	87-55	—
Tue 10 Nov7 PM ET	vs Virginia Techrank 79	Neutral	78%	77-68	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 75% · the next 7 days

Tue 10 Nov: vs Virginia TechA win: 76% · a loss: 69%+7 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Cooper KochF	1	31.0	9.0	4.0	2.0	+4.8	+3.6
Tate SageG	1	26.0	9.0	2.0	0.0	+5.6	+3.4
Ty'Reek ColemanG · transfer from Illinois St	1	22.0	10.0	6.0	4.0	+4.8	+2.6
Trevin JirakC	1	21.0	6.0	7.0	4.0	+4.2	+2.3
Kael CombsG	1	20.0	7.0	3.0	5.0	+4.9	+2.4
Jaidyn CoonG	1	19.0	12.0	6.0	1.0	+1.1	+1.1
Peyton McCollumG	1	18.0	8.0	0.0	0.0	+1.1	+1.0
Isaia HowardG	1	13.0	2.0	3.0	0.0	+6.1	+1.8
Cam ManyawuF	1	12.0	7.0	3.0	0.0	+8.0	+2.1
Joey MatteoniF	1	10.0	6.0	4.0	0.0	+4.4	+1.1
Trey ThompsonF	1	5.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	+1.5	+0.3
Ethan HarrisG	1	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+1.6	+0.2

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	49.9%rank 254	49.5%rank 73	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	17.8%rank 55	19.3%rank 49	18.5%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.6%rank 222	30.2%rank 41	31.8%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	24.9%rank 230	26.9%rank 310	25.1%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +8.4 points a game (they shot 16.7%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −2.5 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +21.3
Last season's net rating: +23.4
Last season's minutes returning: 56%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +3.6
Change since preseason: +0.2

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 117.5 (rank 19)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 96.0 (rank 30)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 68.6 (rank 365)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −3.1 (rank 138)

Big Ten Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Illinois	1-0	0-0	+29.6	123.2	93.6	5
2	Michigan	1-0	0-0	+28.0	120.5	92.5	6
3	Michigan State	1-0	0-0	+27.6	119.4	91.8	8
4	Nebraska	1-0	0-0	+23.7	117.8	94.1	15
5	Purdue	0-1	0-0	+21.9	119.2	97.3	17
6	Iowa	1-0	0-0	+21.5	117.5	96.0	20
7	UCLA	1-0	0-0	+21.4	117.2	95.8	21
8	Ohio State	0-1	0-0	+17.8	118.7	100.9	34
9	Wisconsin	1-0	0-0	+16.6	114.7	98.1	40
10	Indiana	2-0	0-0	+16.1	115.2	99.2	42
11	Maryland	1-0	0-0	+15.7	114.4	98.7	43
12	Oregon	1-0	0-0	+15.3	113.2	97.9	47
13	USC	1-0	0-0	+15.3	112.6	97.3	48
14	Northwestern	1-0	0-0	+12.7	113.1	100.3	61
15	Minnesota	1-0	0-0	+11.9	110.3	98.4	65
16	Penn State	1-0	0-0	+11.0	112.4	101.4	68
17	Rutgers	0-0	0-0	+10.2	110.9	100.7	75
18	Washington	1-0	0-0	+9.6	111.3	101.8	81