Ohio State Buckeyes

Men's · Big Ten Conference · 0-1, 0-0 in conference · last L1

Next: vs Youngstown St · Fri 6 Nov, 6:30 PM ET

Youngstown St3%97%Ohio State

Projected 88-65 · Game page

Makes the tournament42%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 6.9

Wins the national title<1%Final Four 2% · projected 18-15

Net rating+17.8Rank 34 of 365 · offence 12, defence 86

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 18-15 (14 to 24 wins)
Projected conference record: 10-10
Wins or shares the conference title: 1%
Wins the conference tournament: 2%
Average seed if in the field: 6.9
A 1 seed: <1%

Makes the field42%
Round of 3228%
Sweet 1611%
Elite Eight4%
Final Four2%
Title game1%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs BYUrank 24	Neutral	50%	71-71	L 83-94	Right
Fri 6 Nov6:30 PM ET	vs Youngstown Staterank 200	Home	97%	88-65	—
Mon 9 Nov6 PM ET	vs Marshallrank 172	Home	97%	90-68	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 42% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs Youngstown StateA win: 42% · a loss: 37%+6 pts
Mon 9 Nov: vs MarshallA win: 42% · a loss: 43%−1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Amare BynumF	1	35.0	20.0	3.0	4.0	+4.9	+4.3
John Mobley Jr.G	1	27.0	14.0	3.0	7.0	+5.7	+3.7
Justin PippenG · transfer from California	1	25.0	12.0	3.0	2.0	+5.6	+3.4
Anthony ThompsonF	1	20.0	2.0	4.0	2.0	+0.4	+0.9
Josh OjianwunaF	1	19.0	5.0	3.0	0.0	+0.4	+0.8
Andrija JelavicF · transfer from Kentucky	1	19.0	13.0	9.0	0.0	+5.2	+2.4
Curtis Givens IIIG · transfer from Memphis	1	18.0	4.0	1.0	3.0	+2.4	+1.4
Jimmie WilliamsG · transfer from Duquesne	1	15.0	4.0	2.0	0.0	+4.6	+1.8
LJ SmithG	1	12.0	3.0	2.0	0.0	+0.6	+0.6
Lee AaliyaF	1	8.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	+0.7	+0.4
Ivan NjegovanC	1	2.0	4.0	1.0	0.0	+4.8	+0.2

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	51.5%rank 68	52.6%rank 347	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.2%rank 100	17.5%rank 340	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.7%rank 210	31.5%rank 138	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	26.2%rank 74	27.1%rank 316	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 0.0 won, 0.5 expected (−0.5)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −9.7 points a game (they shot 45.8%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −2.4 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +19.2
Last season's net rating: +21.8
Last season's minutes returning: 33%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +4.2
Change since preseason: −1.4

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 118.7 (rank 12)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 100.9 (rank 86)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 70.3 (rank 304)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +20.8 (rank 22)

Big Ten Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Illinois	1-0	0-0	+29.6	123.2	93.6	5
2	Michigan	1-0	0-0	+28.0	120.5	92.5	6
3	Michigan State	1-0	0-0	+27.6	119.4	91.8	8
4	Nebraska	1-0	0-0	+23.7	117.8	94.1	15
5	Purdue	0-1	0-0	+21.9	119.2	97.3	17
6	Iowa	1-0	0-0	+21.5	117.5	96.0	20
7	UCLA	1-0	0-0	+21.4	117.2	95.8	21
8	Ohio State	0-1	0-0	+17.8	118.7	100.9	34
9	Indiana	1-0	0-0	+16.6	114.0	97.3	40
10	Wisconsin	1-0	0-0	+16.6	114.7	98.1	41
11	Maryland	1-0	0-0	+15.7	114.4	98.7	43
12	Oregon	1-0	0-0	+15.3	113.2	97.9	47
13	USC	1-0	0-0	+15.3	112.6	97.3	48
14	Northwestern	1-0	0-0	+12.7	113.1	100.3	61
15	Minnesota	1-0	0-0	+11.9	110.3	98.3	65
16	Penn State	1-0	0-0	+11.0	112.4	101.4	68
17	Rutgers	0-0	0-0	+10.2	110.9	100.7	75
18	Washington	1-0	0-0	+9.6	111.3	101.8	81