Purdue Boilermakers

Men's · Big Ten Conference · 0-1, 0-0 in conference · last L1

Next: vs Valparaiso · Fri 6 Nov, 6:30 PM ET

Valparaiso4%96%Purdue

Projected 84-63 · Game page

Makes the tournament79%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 4.7

Wins the national title1%Final Four 6% · projected 22-12

Net rating+21.9Rank 17 of 365 · offence 10, defence 40

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 22-12 (16 to 27 wins)
Projected conference record: 12-8
Wins or shares the conference title: 7%
Wins the conference tournament: 6%
Average seed if in the field: 4.7
A 1 seed: 5%

Makes the field79%
Round of 3265%
Sweet 1634%
Elite Eight15%
Final Four6%
Title game2%
Champion1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Gonzagarank 27	Neutral	58%	70-68	L 72-78	Wrong
Fri 6 Nov6:30 PM ET	vs Valparaisorank 125	Home	96%	84-63	—
Mon 9 Nov8:30 PM ET	vs Illinois Staterank 123	Home	95%	85-65	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 79% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs ValparaisoA win: 79% · a loss: 78%+2 pts
Mon 9 Nov: vs Illinois StateA win: 79% · a loss: 80%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
C.J. CoxG	1	36.0	11.0	3.0	2.0	+6.0	+5.0
Caden PierceF	1	29.0	7.0	6.0	3.0	+0.9	+1.5
Gicarri HarrisG	1	28.0	8.0	4.0	2.0	+6.0	+3.9
Daniel JacobsenC	1	27.0	22.0	7.0	2.0	+7.8	+4.6
Omer MayerG	1	25.0	8.0	2.0	5.0	+5.2	+3.2
Antione West JrG	1	20.0	10.0	1.0	3.0	+1.1	+1.1
Jack BenterG	1	11.0	0.0	4.0	0.0	+6.3	+1.6
Luke ErtelG	1	10.0	2.0	1.0	0.0	+1.3	+0.6
Enzo ShahrvinF	1	8.0	2.0	1.0	0.0	+1.4	+0.5
Raleigh BurgessF	1	5.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	+1.5	+0.3

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.6%rank 115	50.2%rank 131	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	17.9%rank 61	17.9%rank 302	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	30.3%rank 314	31.3%rank 126	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	25.5%rank 111	28.9%rank 358	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 0.0 won, 0.6 expected (−0.6)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −2.5 points a game (they shot 37.5%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −2.6 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +22.9
Last season's net rating: +31.6
Last season's minutes returning: 41%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: 0.0
Change since preseason: −1.1

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 119.2 (rank 10)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 97.3 (rank 40)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 69.7 (rank 345)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +20.5 (rank 25)

Big Ten Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Illinois	1-0	0-0	+29.6	123.2	93.5	5
2	Michigan	1-0	0-0	+28.1	120.5	92.4	6
3	Michigan State	1-0	0-0	+27.6	119.4	91.7	8
4	Nebraska	1-0	0-0	+23.7	117.8	94.0	15
5	Purdue	0-1	0-0	+21.9	119.2	97.3	17
6	Iowa	1-0	0-0	+21.6	117.5	96.0	20
7	UCLA	1-0	0-0	+21.4	117.1	95.7	21
8	Ohio State	0-1	0-0	+17.8	118.7	100.8	34
9	Indiana	1-0	0-0	+16.6	113.9	97.3	40
10	Wisconsin	1-0	0-0	+16.6	114.7	98.1	41
11	Maryland	1-0	0-0	+15.8	114.4	98.7	43
12	Oregon	1-0	0-0	+15.3	113.2	97.8	47
13	USC	1-0	0-0	+15.3	112.6	97.2	48
14	Northwestern	1-0	0-0	+12.8	113.0	100.3	61
15	Minnesota	1-0	0-0	+12.0	110.3	98.3	65
16	Penn State	1-0	0-0	+11.1	112.4	101.3	68
17	Rutgers	0-0	0-0	+10.2	110.9	100.7	75
18	Washington	1-0	0-0	+9.6	111.3	101.7	81