Oregon Ducks

Men's · Big Ten Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs E Washington · Fri 6 Nov, 6 PM ET

E Washington5%95%Oregon

Projected 85-65 · Game page

Makes the tournament37%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 7.2

Wins the national title<1%Final Four 1% · projected 17-14

Net rating+15.3Rank 47 of 365 · offence 49, defence 44

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 17-14 (13 to 22 wins)
Projected conference record: 9-11
Wins or shares the conference title: 1%
Wins the conference tournament: 1%
Average seed if in the field: 7.2
A 1 seed: <1%

Makes the field37%
Round of 3222%
Sweet 167%
Elite Eight2%
Final Four1%
Title game<1%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Montanarank 184	Home	93%	78-59	W 87-69	Right
Fri 6 Nov6 PM ET	vs Eastern Washingtonrank 174	Home	95%	85-65	—
Wed 11 Nov10 PM ET	vs Mississippi Valley Staterank 365	Home	100%	93-54	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 37% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs Eastern WashingtonA win: 37% · a loss: 35%+2 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Tyrone Riley IVG · transfer from San Francisco	1	33.0	17.0	2.0	3.0	+2.4	+2.6
Fred PayneG · transfer from Boston College	1	32.0	12.0	1.0	5.0	+2.4	+2.5
Andrew MeadowF · transfer from Boise St	1	27.0	14.0	1.0	1.0	+3.6	+2.7
Malique EwinC · transfer from Arkansas	1	24.0	14.0	13.0	2.0	+6.4	+3.6
Taylor Bol BowenF · transfer from Alabama	1	21.0	6.0	5.0	4.0	+4.6	+2.5
Wei LinG	1	18.0	10.0	1.0	1.0	+0.7	+0.9
Sean StewartF	1	13.0	6.0	6.0	0.0	+2.4	+1.0
Jasper JohnsonG · transfer from Kentucky	1	12.0	1.0	2.0	2.0	+3.1	+1.1
Tajh ArizaF	1	11.0	3.0	1.0	3.0	−0.2	+0.4
Pharaoh ComptonF · transfer from San Diego St	1	4.0	4.0	1.0	0.0	+6.2	+0.6
Jerry Easter IIG · transfer from USC	1	3.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	+2.5	+0.2
Seven SpurlockF	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.1	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	51.9%rank 47	51.0%rank 274	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.1%rank 84	17.5%rank 338	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	30.6%rank 303	30.2%rank 37	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	23.9%rank 296	25.0%rank 138	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.9 expected (+0.1)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −9.9 points a game (they shot 43.3%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −2.4 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +14.2
Last season's net rating: +7.4
Last season's minutes returning: 21%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +13.1
Change since preseason: +1.1

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 113.2 (rank 49)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 97.8 (rank 44)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 70.5 (rank 290)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −5.0 (rank 157)

Big Ten Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Illinois	1-0	0-0	+29.6	123.2	93.5	5
2	Michigan	1-0	0-0	+28.1	120.5	92.4	6
3	Michigan State	1-0	0-0	+27.6	119.4	91.7	8
4	Nebraska	1-0	0-0	+23.7	117.8	94.0	15
5	Purdue	0-1	0-0	+21.9	119.2	97.3	17
6	Iowa	1-0	0-0	+21.6	117.5	96.0	20
7	UCLA	1-0	0-0	+21.4	117.1	95.7	21
8	Ohio State	0-1	0-0	+17.8	118.7	100.8	34
9	Indiana	1-0	0-0	+16.6	113.9	97.3	40
10	Wisconsin	1-0	0-0	+16.6	114.7	98.1	41
11	Maryland	1-0	0-0	+15.8	114.4	98.7	43
12	Oregon	1-0	0-0	+15.3	113.2	97.8	47
13	USC	1-0	0-0	+15.3	112.6	97.2	48
14	Northwestern	1-0	0-0	+12.8	113.0	100.3	61
15	Minnesota	1-0	0-0	+12.0	110.3	98.3	65
16	Penn State	1-0	0-0	+11.1	112.4	101.3	68
17	Rutgers	0-0	0-0	+10.2	110.9	100.7	75
18	Washington	1-0	0-0	+9.6	111.3	101.7	81