Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Men's · Big Ten Conference · 0-0, 0-0 in conference

Next: vs New Haven · Fri 6 Nov, 7 PM ET

New Haven3%97%Rutgers

Projected 84-60 · Game page

Makes the tournament11%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 8.2

Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 14-16

Net rating+10.2Rank 74 of 365 · offence 77, defence 83

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 14-16 (10 to 19 wins)
Projected conference record: 6-14
Wins or shares the conference title: <1%
Wins the conference tournament: <1%
Average seed if in the field: 8.2
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field11%
Round of 325%
Sweet 161%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four<1%
Title game<1%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Fri 6 Nov7 PM ET	vs New Havenrank 313	Home	97%	84-60	—
Tue 10 Nov6:30 PM ET	vs NJITrank 349	Home	99%	89-61	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 11% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs New HavenA win: 11% · a loss: 10%+1 pts
Tue 10 Nov: vs NJITA win: 11% · a loss: 11%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.4%rank 135	50.4%rank 155	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.5%rank 156	18.5%rank 135	18.5%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.8%rank 128	31.8%rank 161	31.8%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	25.3%rank 133	25.3%rank 155	25.3%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

0 games played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +10.2
Last season's net rating: +2.8
Last season's minutes returning: 53%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −1.6
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 111.0 (rank 77)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 100.8 (rank 83)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.3 (rank 193)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

Big Ten Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Illinois	1-0	0-0	+29.6	123.3	93.6	5
2	Michigan	1-0	0-0	+28.1	120.6	92.5	6
3	Michigan State	1-0	0-0	+27.7	119.5	91.8	8
4	Nebraska	1-0	0-0	+23.7	117.9	94.1	15
5	Purdue	0-1	0-0	+21.9	119.2	97.3	18
6	Iowa	1-0	0-0	+21.6	117.6	96.1	20
7	UCLA	1-0	0-0	+21.4	117.2	95.8	21
8	Ohio State	0-1	0-0	+17.8	118.8	100.9	34
9	Wisconsin	1-0	0-0	+16.6	114.8	98.2	40
10	Indiana	2-0	0-0	+16.1	115.3	99.2	42
11	Maryland	1-0	0-0	+15.8	114.5	98.7	43
12	Oregon	1-0	0-0	+15.3	113.2	97.9	47
13	USC	1-0	0-0	+15.3	112.7	97.3	48
14	Northwestern	1-0	0-0	+12.8	113.1	100.4	61
15	Minnesota	1-0	0-0	+12.0	110.4	98.4	65
16	Rutgers	0-0	0-0	+10.2	111.0	100.8	74
17	Washington	1-0	0-0	+9.6	111.4	101.8	79
18	Penn State	2-0	0-0	+8.8	114.4	105.5	82