Nebraska Cornhuskers

Men's · Big Ten Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Providence · Sat 7 Nov, 7 PM ET

Providence21%79%Nebraska

Projected 82-72 · Game page

Makes the tournament89%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 4.5

Wins the national title2%Final Four 9% · projected 24-9

Net rating+23.7Rank 15 of 365 · offence 18, defence 17

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 24-9 (19 to 29 wins)
Projected conference record: 13-7
Wins or shares the conference title: 10%
Wins the conference tournament: 9%
Average seed if in the field: 4.5
A 1 seed: 7%

Makes the field89%
Round of 3275%
Sweet 1644%
Elite Eight21%
Final Four9%
Title game4%
Champion2%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Le Moynerank 352	Home	100%	87-49	W 106-64	Right
Sat 7 Nov7 PM ET	vs Providencerank 66	Neutral	79%	82-72	—
Wed 11 Nov9 PM ET	vs Lindenwoodrank 326	Home	100%	94-58	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 89% · the next 7 days

Sat 7 Nov: vs ProvidenceA win: 90% · a loss: 83%+6 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Braden FragerF	1	27.0	7.0	3.0	3.0	+7.0	+4.3
Pryce SandfortF	1	26.0	20.0	5.0	2.0	+8.4	+4.8
Cale JacobsenG	1	25.0	16.0	4.0	3.0	+5.4	+3.3
Jacob LanierG	1	23.0	11.0	6.0	2.0	+0.7	+1.1
Trevan LeonhardtG · transfer from Utah Valley	1	21.0	7.0	5.0	7.0	+5.3	+2.7
Boden KapkeF · transfer from Boston College	1	19.0	8.0	4.0	1.0	+3.3	+1.8
Taj DeGourvilleG · transfer from San Diego St	1	17.0	9.0	3.0	2.0	+4.0	+1.8
Damon WilkinsonF · transfer from S Dakota St	1	15.0	11.0	2.0	2.0	+5.0	+1.9
Connor EssegianG	1	7.0	13.0	2.0	0.0	+4.0	+0.8
Leo CurtisF	1	6.0	3.0	1.0	1.0	+4.8	+0.7
Colin RiceG	1	6.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	+1.1	+0.3
Will CooperF	1	4.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	+1.1	+0.2
Kadyn BettsF · transfer from Montana	1	2.0	1.0	2.0	1.0	+0.5	+0.1
Henry BurtF	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+1.2	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	52.0%rank 42	50.9%rank 261	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	17.7%rank 42	18.9%rank 95	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.7%rank 205	30.3%rank 44	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	26.1%rank 80	24.6%rank 109	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −1.9 points a game (they shot 34.5%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −1.1 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +23.7
Last season's net rating: +26.7
Last season's minutes returning: 40%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +4.4
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 117.8 (rank 18)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 94.0 (rank 17)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 70.9 (rank 240)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −20.7 (rank 278)

Big Ten Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Illinois	1-0	0-0	+29.6	123.2	93.5	5
2	Michigan	1-0	0-0	+28.1	120.5	92.4	6
3	Michigan State	1-0	0-0	+27.6	119.4	91.7	8
4	Nebraska	1-0	0-0	+23.7	117.8	94.0	15
5	Purdue	0-1	0-0	+21.9	119.2	97.3	17
6	Iowa	1-0	0-0	+21.6	117.5	96.0	20
7	UCLA	1-0	0-0	+21.4	117.1	95.7	21
8	Ohio State	0-1	0-0	+17.8	118.7	100.8	34
9	Indiana	1-0	0-0	+16.6	113.9	97.3	40
10	Wisconsin	1-0	0-0	+16.6	114.7	98.1	41
11	Maryland	1-0	0-0	+15.8	114.4	98.7	43
12	Oregon	1-0	0-0	+15.3	113.2	97.8	47
13	USC	1-0	0-0	+15.3	112.6	97.2	48
14	Northwestern	1-0	0-0	+12.8	113.0	100.3	61
15	Minnesota	1-0	0-0	+12.0	110.3	98.3	65
16	Penn State	1-0	0-0	+11.1	112.4	101.3	68
17	Rutgers	0-0	0-0	+10.2	110.9	100.7	75
18	Washington	1-0	0-0	+9.6	111.3	101.7	81