USC Trojans

Men's · Big Ten Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Wichita St · Sun 8 Nov, 11 PM ET

USC65%35%Wichita St

Projected 78-74 · Game page

Makes the tournament38%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 7.1

Wins the national title<1%Final Four 1% · projected 19-14

Net rating+15.3Rank 48 of 365 · offence 56, defence 39

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 19-14 (13 to 24 wins)
Projected conference record: 9-11
Wins or shares the conference title: 1%
Wins the conference tournament: 1%
Average seed if in the field: 7.1
A 1 seed: <1%

Makes the field38%
Round of 3223%
Sweet 168%
Elite Eight3%
Final Four1%
Title game<1%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Milwaukeerank 218	Home	95%	81-60	W 95-63	Right
Sun 8 Nov11 PM ET	vs Wichita Staterank 80	Neutral	65%	78-74	—
Wed 11 Nov11 PM ET	at Californiarank 105	Away	65%	79-75	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 38% · the next 7 days

Sun 8 Nov: vs Wichita StateA win: 41% · a loss: 33%+7 pts
Wed 11 Nov: at CaliforniaA win: 41% · a loss: 33%+7 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Rodney RiceG	1	32.0	15.0	6.0	9.0	+4.1	+3.6
Alijah ArenasG	1	29.0	21.0	8.0	2.0	+3.1	+2.8
Darius RatliffC	1	28.0	14.0	2.0	2.0	+0.7	+1.4
Adonis RatliffF	1	24.0	25.0	6.0	3.0	+0.9	+1.3
KJ LewisG · transfer from Georgetown	1	23.0	10.0	1.0	2.0	+6.0	+3.4
Isaac BrunsG · transfer from South Dakota	1	16.0	2.0	3.0	3.0	+3.1	+1.5
Jalen CoxG · transfer from Colgate	1	10.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	+5.2	+1.3
Aaron Hunkin-ClaytorG · transfer from Hawai'i	1	10.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	+2.0	+0.7
Jacob CofieF	1	9.0	2.0	3.0	1.0	+5.5	+1.2
Joshua HughesF · transfer from Evansville	1	9.0	0.0	2.0	2.0	+0.8	+0.5
Jadis JonesG · transfer from Lindenwood	1	8.0	4.0	3.0	0.0	+3.7	+0.8

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	52.4%rank 28	49.9%rank 104	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	19.1%rank 295	18.8%rank 115	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	30.6%rank 298	31.7%rank 159	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	25.5%rank 113	24.3%rank 94	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.9 expected (+0.1)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +4.3 points a game (they shot 26.1%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −0.7 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +14.8
Last season's net rating: +10.4
Last season's minutes returning: 24%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −1.3
Change since preseason: +0.5

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 112.6 (rank 56)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 97.2 (rank 39)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 73.0 (rank 28)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −7.2 (rank 179)

Big Ten Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Illinois	1-0	0-0	+29.6	123.2	93.5	5
2	Michigan	1-0	0-0	+28.1	120.5	92.4	6
3	Michigan State	1-0	0-0	+27.6	119.4	91.7	8
4	Nebraska	1-0	0-0	+23.7	117.8	94.0	15
5	Purdue	0-1	0-0	+21.9	119.2	97.3	17
6	Iowa	1-0	0-0	+21.6	117.5	96.0	20
7	UCLA	1-0	0-0	+21.4	117.1	95.7	21
8	Ohio State	0-1	0-0	+17.8	118.7	100.8	34
9	Indiana	1-0	0-0	+16.6	113.9	97.3	40
10	Wisconsin	1-0	0-0	+16.6	114.7	98.1	41
11	Maryland	1-0	0-0	+15.8	114.4	98.7	43
12	Oregon	1-0	0-0	+15.3	113.2	97.8	47
13	USC	1-0	0-0	+15.3	112.6	97.2	48
14	Northwestern	1-0	0-0	+12.8	113.0	100.3	61
15	Minnesota	1-0	0-0	+12.0	110.3	98.3	65
16	Penn State	1-0	0-0	+11.1	112.4	101.3	68
17	Rutgers	0-0	0-0	+10.2	110.9	100.7	75
18	Washington	1-0	0-0	+9.6	111.3	101.7	81