Northwestern Wildcats

Men's · Big Ten Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Stony Brook · Fri 6 Nov, 8 PM ET

Stony Brook4%96%Northwestern

Projected 85-63 · Game page

Makes the tournament25%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 7.6

Wins the national title<1%Final Four <1% · projected 17-16

Net rating+12.7Rank 61 of 365 · offence 52, defence 76

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 17-16 (12 to 22 wins)
Projected conference record: 7-13
Wins or shares the conference title: <1%
Wins the conference tournament: <1%
Average seed if in the field: 7.6
A 1 seed: <1%

Makes the field25%
Round of 3213%
Sweet 164%
Elite Eight1%
Final Four<1%
Title game<1%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Binghamtonrank 344	Home	99%	81-52	W 86-60	Right
Fri 6 Nov8 PM ET	vs Stony Brookrank 248	Home	96%	85-63	—
Mon 9 Nov8 PM ET	vs Boston Universityrank 243	Home	96%	86-65	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 25% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs Stony BrookA win: 25% · a loss: 23%+2 pts
Mon 9 Nov: vs Boston UniversityA win: 25% · a loss: 23%+2 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
LA PrattG · transfer from Northeastern	1	32.0	19.0	3.0	4.0	+0.1	+1.2
Jake WestG	1	32.0	20.0	5.0	12.0	+2.5	+2.6
Angelo CiaravinoG	1	31.0	13.0	10.0	2.0	+3.9	+3.2
Jack KarasinskiF · transfer from Bellarmine	1	28.0	24.0	3.0	1.0	+4.2	+3.0
Okku FederikoF · transfer from Drake	1	23.0	4.0	2.0	1.0	+2.8	+1.9
Colin SmithF · transfer from Santa Barbara	1	17.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	+2.6	+1.4
Phoenix GillG	1	12.0	6.0	4.0	1.0	+1.9	+0.8
Aleksej KosticG · transfer from BYU	1	10.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	+3.1	+0.9
Symon GhaiC	1	7.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	+1.1	+0.4
Ryan SoulisF · transfer from Columbia	1	6.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	+2.7	+0.5
Dylan WilliamsG · transfer from Penn	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.7	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	52.2%rank 33	50.4%rank 153	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.1%rank 71	18.2%rank 259	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	32.0%rank 115	30.6%rank 60	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	25.5%rank 111	25.7%rank 261	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +2.5 points a game (they shot 27.8%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −2.7 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +13.7
Last season's net rating: +13.4
Last season's minutes returning: 22%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −1.6
Change since preseason: −0.9

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 113.1 (rank 52)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 100.3 (rank 76)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 69.8 (rank 339)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −19.4 (rank 273)

Big Ten Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Illinois	1-0	0-0	+29.6	123.2	93.6	5
2	Michigan	1-0	0-0	+28.0	120.5	92.5	6
3	Michigan State	1-0	0-0	+27.6	119.4	91.8	8
4	Nebraska	1-0	0-0	+23.7	117.8	94.1	15
5	Purdue	0-1	0-0	+21.9	119.2	97.3	17
6	Iowa	1-0	0-0	+21.5	117.5	96.0	20
7	UCLA	1-0	0-0	+21.4	117.2	95.8	21
8	Ohio State	0-1	0-0	+17.8	118.7	100.9	34
9	Indiana	1-0	0-0	+16.6	114.0	97.3	40
10	Wisconsin	1-0	0-0	+16.6	114.7	98.1	41
11	Maryland	1-0	0-0	+15.7	114.4	98.7	43
12	Oregon	1-0	0-0	+15.3	113.2	97.9	47
13	USC	1-0	0-0	+15.3	112.6	97.3	48
14	Northwestern	1-0	0-0	+12.7	113.1	100.3	61
15	Minnesota	1-0	0-0	+11.9	110.3	98.3	65
16	Penn State	1-0	0-0	+11.0	112.4	101.4	68
17	Rutgers	0-0	0-0	+10.2	110.9	100.7	75
18	Washington	1-0	0-0	+9.6	111.3	101.8	81