Maryland Terrapins

Men's · Big Ten Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at Georgetown · Sat 7 Nov, 7:30 PM ET

Maryland49%51%Georgetown

Projected 74-74 · Game page

Makes the tournament41%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 6.8

Wins the national title<1%Final Four 1% · projected 17-14

Net rating+15.8Rank 43 of 365 · offence 36, defence 54

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 17-14 (12 to 22 wins)
Projected conference record: 9-11
Wins or shares the conference title: 1%
Wins the conference tournament: 1%
Average seed if in the field: 6.8
A 1 seed: <1%

Makes the field41%
Round of 3225%
Sweet 169%
Elite Eight3%
Final Four1%
Title game<1%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Bucknellrank 331	Home	97%	78-54	W 96-67	Right
Sat 7 Nov7:30 PM ET	at Georgetownrank 71	Away	49%	74-74	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 41% · the next 7 days

Sat 7 Nov: at GeorgetownA win: 46% · a loss: 35%+11 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Pharrel PayneF	1	24.0	13.0	6.0	0.0	+5.2	+3.1
Andre MillsG	1	23.0	22.0	11.0	2.0	+3.0	+2.1
DJ WagnerG · transfer from Arkansas	1	22.0	10.0	5.0	3.0	+4.0	+2.4
Mike McNair Jr.G · transfer from Boston U	1	21.0	6.0	3.0	2.0	+2.5	+1.7
Tomislav BuljanF · transfer from New Mexico	1	20.0	10.0	7.0	0.0	+7.8	+3.5
Baba OladotunF	1	19.0	7.0	4.0	1.0	+0.3	+0.8
Kaden HouseG	1	18.0	14.0	5.0	0.0	+0.4	+0.8
Bishop BoswellG · transfer from Tennessee	1	17.0	3.0	3.0	2.0	+5.1	+2.2
Robert Jennings IIF · transfer from Oklahoma St	1	16.0	7.0	2.0	0.0	+1.7	+1.1
Austin BrownF	1	12.0	2.0	3.0	1.0	+0.5	+0.5
George Turkson Jr.G	1	4.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	+0.1	+0.2
Adama TambedouF	1	4.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.7	+0.2

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	49.8%rank 270	51.9%rank 318	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.9%rank 268	19.2%rank 58	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	37.0%rank 1	30.3%rank 47	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	25.3%rank 126	24.4%rank 99	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −5.9 points a game (they shot 38.7%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +0.6 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +12.9
Last season's net rating: +2.6
Last season's minutes returning: 25%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +6.5
Change since preseason: +2.8

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 114.4 (rank 36)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 98.7 (rank 54)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 70.8 (rank 252)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −16.5 (rank 261)

Big Ten Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Illinois	1-0	0-0	+29.6	123.2	93.5	5
2	Michigan	1-0	0-0	+28.1	120.5	92.4	6
3	Michigan State	1-0	0-0	+27.6	119.4	91.7	8
4	Nebraska	1-0	0-0	+23.7	117.8	94.0	15
5	Purdue	0-1	0-0	+21.9	119.2	97.3	17
6	Iowa	1-0	0-0	+21.6	117.5	96.0	20
7	UCLA	1-0	0-0	+21.4	117.1	95.7	21
8	Ohio State	0-1	0-0	+17.8	118.7	100.8	34
9	Indiana	1-0	0-0	+16.6	113.9	97.3	40
10	Wisconsin	1-0	0-0	+16.6	114.7	98.1	41
11	Maryland	1-0	0-0	+15.8	114.4	98.7	43
12	Oregon	1-0	0-0	+15.3	113.2	97.8	47
13	USC	1-0	0-0	+15.3	112.6	97.2	48
14	Northwestern	1-0	0-0	+12.8	113.0	100.3	61
15	Minnesota	1-0	0-0	+12.0	110.3	98.3	65
16	Penn State	1-0	0-0	+11.1	112.4	101.3	68
17	Rutgers	0-0	0-0	+10.2	110.9	100.7	75
18	Washington	1-0	0-0	+9.6	111.3	101.7	81