Washington Huskies

Men's · Big Ten Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Miss Valley St · Mon 9 Nov, 10 PM ET

Miss Valley St0%100%Washington

Projected 93-57 · Game page

Makes the tournament11%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 8.1

Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 13-17

Net rating+9.6Rank 81 of 365 · offence 71, defence 98

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 13-17 (9 to 17 wins)
Projected conference record: 6-14
Wins or shares the conference title: <1%
Wins the conference tournament: <1%
Average seed if in the field: 8.1
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field11%
Round of 325%
Sweet 161%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four<1%
Title game<1%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Colgaterank 197	Home	92%	77-60	W 90-76	Right
Mon 9 Nov10 PM ET	vs Mississippi Valley Staterank 365	Home	100%	93-57	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 11% · the next 7 days

No games this week

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Ryan BeasleyG · transfer from San Francisco	1	36.0	8.0	5.0	4.0	+1.4	+2.2
LeJuan WattsG · transfer from Texas Tech	1	32.0	22.0	3.0	3.0	+4.0	+3.5
Wesley Yates IIIG	1	30.0	10.0	0.0	0.0	+2.0	+2.2
Nikola DzepinaF	1	30.0	27.0	7.0	0.0	+0.5	+1.4
Tayshawn ComerG · transfer from Nevada	1	25.0	7.0	3.0	1.0	+1.8	+1.7
Lathan SommervilleC	1	16.0	11.0	5.0	0.0	+0.7	+0.8
Steele VentersG · transfer from Gonzaga	1	15.0	3.0	4.0	0.0	+3.0	+1.4
Parker FriedrichsenG · transfer from Davidson	1	12.0	2.0	1.0	2.0	+2.0	+0.9
Jasir RencherF	1	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+1.3	+0.2
Wini BragaF	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−0.7	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	50.4%rank 133	51.1%rank 277	50.4%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.2%rank 103	17.4%rank 348	18.6%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	30.9%rank 276	32.6%rank 287	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	29.4%rank 4	25.1%rank 144	25.2%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.9 expected (+0.1)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +0.3 points a game (they shot 31.8%, league 32.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +4.9 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +10.5
Last season's net rating: +15.5
Last season's minutes returning: 21%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +8.1
Change since preseason: −0.9

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 111.3 (rank 71)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 101.7 (rank 98)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.4 (rank 185)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −6.0 (rank 163)

Big Ten Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Illinois	1-0	0-0	+29.6	123.2	93.5	5
2	Michigan	1-0	0-0	+28.1	120.5	92.4	6
3	Michigan State	1-0	0-0	+27.6	119.4	91.7	8
4	Nebraska	1-0	0-0	+23.7	117.8	94.0	15
5	Purdue	0-1	0-0	+21.9	119.2	97.3	17
6	Iowa	1-0	0-0	+21.6	117.5	96.0	20
7	UCLA	1-0	0-0	+21.4	117.1	95.7	21
8	Ohio State	0-1	0-0	+17.8	118.7	100.8	34
9	Indiana	1-0	0-0	+16.6	113.9	97.3	40
10	Wisconsin	1-0	0-0	+16.6	114.7	98.1	41
11	Maryland	1-0	0-0	+15.8	114.4	98.7	43
12	Oregon	1-0	0-0	+15.3	113.2	97.8	47
13	USC	1-0	0-0	+15.3	112.6	97.2	48
14	Northwestern	1-0	0-0	+12.8	113.0	100.3	61
15	Minnesota	1-0	0-0	+12.0	110.3	98.3	65
16	Penn State	1-0	0-0	+11.1	112.4	101.3	68
17	Rutgers	0-0	0-0	+10.2	110.9	100.7	75
18	Washington	1-0	0-0	+9.6	111.3	101.7	81