Colgate Raiders
Makes the tournament22%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.7
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 20-14
Net rating−6.0Rank 197 of 365 · offence 147, defence 279
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 20-14 (14 to 25 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 12-6
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 31%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 22%
- Average seed if in the field
- 14.7
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field22%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Washingtonrank 81 | Away | 8% | 60-77 | L 76-90 | Right |
| Sat 7 Nov2 PM ET | at Drexelrank 223 | Away | 39% | 72-75 | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov7 PM ET | at St. John'srank 22 | Away | 1% | 63-89 | — |
Rooting guide
- Sat 7 Nov: at DrexelA win: 22% · a loss: 22%0 pts
- Wed 11 Nov: at St. John'sA win: 19% · a loss: 22%−4 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew AlekseyenkoF | 1 | 33.0 | 25.0 | 11.0 | 4.0 | +0.4 | +1.4 |
| Parker JonesG | 1 | 32.0 | 17.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | −1.7 | +0.2 |
| Sam WrightF | 1 | 27.0 | 15.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −0.7 | +0.7 |
| Blake ForrestG | 1 | 27.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | −1.6 | +0.2 |
| Kingston McKoyG | 1 | 22.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | −1.5 | +0.2 |
| Josh AhayereG | 1 | 21.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −1.6 | +0.2 |
| Isaiah SkinnG | 1 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | −1.3 | +0.2 |
| Ethan BrownF | 1 | 11.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −2.8 | −0.1 |
| Ayomi OdetoyinboF | 1 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −1.1 | +0.1 |
| Cameron BrennanF | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −3.2 | −0.1 |
| Charlie PughG | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −2.7 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 51.1%rank 89 | 50.4%rank 230 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 17.4%rank 16 | 18.2%rank 258 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 32.6%rank 77 | 30.9%rank 87 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 25.1%rank 218 | 29.4%rank 362 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.1 expected (−0.1)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −2.9 points a game (they shot 35.7%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −5.2 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −7.0
- Last season's net rating
- −5.6
- Last season's minutes returning
- 53%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- 0.0
- Change since preseason
- +0.9
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 104.3 (rank 147)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 110.3 (rank 279)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 71.3 (rank 200)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +9.6 (rank 79)
Patriot League by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | American University | 0-1 | 0-0 | −4.5 | 101.1 | 105.6 | 179 |
| 2 | Colgate | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.0 | 104.3 | 110.3 | 197 |
| 3 | Lehigh | 0-1 | 0-0 | −8.1 | 101.6 | 109.6 | 234 |
| 4 | Boston University | 1-0 | 0-0 | −8.8 | 104.8 | 113.7 | 243 |
| 5 | Navy | 0-1 | 0-0 | −12.0 | 95.9 | 107.9 | 282 |
| 6 | Army | 0-1 | 0-0 | −13.8 | 97.3 | 111.1 | 301 |
| 7 | Loyola Maryland | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.4 | 97.1 | 112.5 | 322 |
| 8 | Lafayette | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.8 | 95.4 | 111.1 | 324 |
| 9 | Bucknell | 0-1 | 0-0 | −16.5 | 97.1 | 113.6 | 331 |
| 10 | Holy Cross | 0-1 | 0-0 | −20.0 | 96.1 | 116.1 | 348 |