Wisconsin Badgers

Men's · Big Ten Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Delaware · Fri 6 Nov, 7:30 PM ET

Delaware2%98%Wisconsin

Projected 87-62 · Game page

Makes the tournament43%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 6.6

Wins the national title<1%Final Four 1% · projected 18-14

Net rating+16.7Rank 40 of 365 · offence 35, defence 44

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 18-14 (13 to 23 wins)
Projected conference record: 9-11
Wins or shares the conference title: 1%
Wins the conference tournament: 1%
Average seed if in the field: 6.6
A 1 seed: <1%

Makes the field43%
Round of 3229%
Sweet 1610%
Elite Eight4%
Final Four1%
Title game<1%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Denverrank 217	Home	99%	86-57	W 75-68	Right
Fri 6 Nov7:30 PM ET	vs Delawarerank 273	Home	98%	87-62	—
Tue 10 Nov8:30 PM ET	vs Fairfieldrank 271	Home	98%	90-64	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 43% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs DelawareA win: 43% · a loss: 41%+2 pts
Tue 10 Nov: vs FairfieldA win: 43% · a loss: 39%+4 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Nolan WinterF	1	35.0	6.0	14.0	4.0	+6.5	+5.4
Owen FoxwellG	1	34.0	14.0	1.0	7.0	−0.7	+0.8
Braeden CarringtonG	1	31.0	15.0	4.0	4.0	+4.5	+3.6
Austin RappF	1	30.0	9.0	5.0	1.0	+4.5	+3.5
Eian ElmerG · transfer from Miami OH	1	26.0	18.0	5.0	3.0	+3.2	+2.5
Jack JanickiG	1	16.0	4.0	0.0	0.0	+2.1	+1.2
Victory OnuetuF · transfer from Hofstra	1	11.0	6.0	4.0	0.0	+3.3	+1.1
Zach KinzigerG	1	5.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+2.8	+0.4
Trey AutryG · transfer from G Washington	1	5.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	+3.0	+0.5
Jackson BallG	1	5.0	3.0	0.0	1.0	+0.1	+0.2
Hayden JonesG	1	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+2.8	+0.3

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	49.4%rank 274	50.5%rank 249	50.1%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin	18.1%rank 108	18.8%rank 109	18.5%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin	31.8%rank 128	31.1%rank 112	31.7%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin	22.3%rank 358	27.4%rank 311	25.6%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +6.2 points a game (they shot 21.1%, league 31.9%)
Opponents' free throws: −3.5 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +21.2
Last season's net rating: +22.7
Last season's minutes returning: 45%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +3.8
Change since preseason: −4.5

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 114.6 (rank 35)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 97.9 (rank 44)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.6 (rank 122)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −7.0 (rank 184)

Big Ten Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Illinois	1-0	0-0	+29.7	123.1	93.3	5
2	Michigan	1-0	0-0	+28.1	120.4	92.2	6
3	Michigan State	1-0	0-0	+27.5	119.5	92.0	9
4	Nebraska	1-0	0-0	+23.8	117.7	93.8	14
5	Purdue	0-1	0-0	+21.9	119.0	97.2	18
6	Iowa	1-0	0-0	+21.6	117.4	95.8	21
7	UCLA	1-0	0-0	+21.4	117.0	95.6	22
8	Ohio State	0-1	0-0	+17.8	118.5	100.7	34
9	Wisconsin	1-0	0-0	+16.7	114.6	97.9	40
10	Indiana	2-0	0-0	+16.2	115.1	98.9	41
11	Maryland	1-0	0-0	+15.8	114.3	98.5	42
12	Oregon	1-0	0-0	+15.4	113.1	97.6	46
13	USC	1-0	0-0	+15.4	112.5	97.1	47
14	Northwestern	1-0	0-0	+13.3	113.3	100.0	59
15	Minnesota	1-0	0-0	+12.1	110.2	98.1	67
16	Rutgers	0-0	0-0	+10.2	110.8	100.5	77
17	Washington	1-0	0-0	+9.7	111.2	101.5	80
18	Penn State	2-0	0-0	+9.0	114.2	105.2	83