Fairfield Stags
Makes the tournament16%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.6
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 20-13
Net rating−9.2Rank 247 of 365 · offence 227, defence 270
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 20-13 (14 to 26 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 13-7
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 23%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 16%
- Average seed if in the field
- 14.6
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field16%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
Rooting guide
- Thu 5 Nov: vs VermontA win: 16% · a loss: 16%0 pts
- Sun 8 Nov: at BryantA win: 16% · a loss: 16%−1 pts
- Tue 10 Nov: at WisconsinA win: 12% · a loss: 16%−4 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 50.4%rank 135 | 50.4%rank 153 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.6%rank 155 | 18.6%rank 133 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 31.7%rank 127 | 31.7%rank 162 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 25.2%rank 133 | 25.2%rank 152 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −9.2
- Last season's net rating
- −7.4
- Last season's minutes returning
- 50%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −1.6
- Change since preseason
- 0.0
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 100.8 (rank 227)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 109.9 (rank 270)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 71.2 (rank 208)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- —
Metro Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fairfield | 0-0 | 0-0 | −9.2 | 100.8 | 109.9 | 247 |
| 2 | Siena | 0-1 | 0-0 | −9.3 | 98.9 | 108.2 | 249 |
| 3 | Quinnipiac | 0-1 | 0-0 | −9.5 | 99.3 | 108.8 | 251 |
| 4 | Merrimack | 0-1 | 0-0 | −10.6 | 98.0 | 108.5 | 260 |
| 5 | Marist | 0-1 | 0-0 | −11.4 | 95.0 | 106.5 | 277 |
| 6 | Sacred Heart | 1-0 | 0-0 | −12.5 | 99.1 | 111.6 | 285 |
| 7 | Mount St. Mary's | 0-1 | 0-0 | −12.6 | 95.5 | 108.0 | 286 |
| 8 | Saint Peter's | 0-1 | 0-0 | −12.8 | 94.7 | 107.5 | 290 |
| 9 | Iona | 1-0 | 0-0 | −13.2 | 95.2 | 108.3 | 294 |
| 10 | Manhattan | 0-1 | 0-0 | −14.1 | 98.6 | 112.7 | 306 |
| 11 | Rider | 0-1 | 0-0 | −21.4 | 92.4 | 113.8 | 354 |
| 12 | Niagara | 0-1 | 0-0 | −22.4 | 91.0 | 113.5 | 358 |
| 13 | Canisius | 0-1 | 0-0 | −23.9 | 93.2 | 117.1 | 363 |