Merrimack Warriors
Next: vs UMass Lowell · Thu 5 Nov, 7 PM ETProjected 76-68 · Game page
Makes the tournament11%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.2
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 17-16
Net rating−10.6Rank 260 of 365 · offence 288, defence 226
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 17-16 (11 to 23 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 12-8
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 14%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 11%
- Average seed if in the field
- 15.2
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field11%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
Rooting guide
- Thu 5 Nov: vs UMass LowellA win: 11% · a loss: 12%0 pts
- Sun 8 Nov: at UAlbanyA win: 11% · a loss: 12%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Lesburt Jr.G | 1 | 35.0 | 10.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −2.3 | −0.1 |
| Denver AnglinG · transfer from Iona | 1 | 31.0 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.6 | −0.3 |
| Ayden JohnsonG | 1 | 26.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | −2.1 | 0.0 |
| Elijah WilbornF · transfer from James Madison | 1 | 21.0 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | −2.3 | −0.1 |
| Jeremiah AndersonG | 1 | 20.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −1.9 | +0.1 |
| Todd BrognaF | 1 | 19.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −1.8 | +0.1 |
| Jacob MooreF | 1 | 16.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −1.8 | +0.1 |
| Dylan VeilletteF | 1 | 12.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | −2.2 | 0.0 |
| JP SkoricF | 1 | 11.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −1.6 | +0.1 |
| Rocco WestfieldG | 1 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.6 | +0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 48.8%rank 331 | 50.4%rank 147 | 50.4% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 25% of the margin | 18.4%rank 136 | 19.4%rank 39 | 18.6% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 21% of the margin | 32.0%rank 110 | 34.3%rank 351 | 31.7% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 10% of the margin | 23.0%rank 331 | 25.3%rank 239 | 25.2% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.5 expected (−0.5)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +5.1 points a game (they shot 26.7%, league 32.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +0.8 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.21), and their free throws even less (0.18), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −6.7
- Last season's net rating
- −1.6
- Last season's minutes returning
- 36%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −1.0
- Change since preseason
- −3.9
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 98.0 (rank 288)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 108.5 (rank 226)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 68.8 (rank 364)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −3.3 (rank 137)
Metro Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fairfield | 0-0 | 0-0 | −9.2 | 100.8 | 109.9 | 247 |
| 2 | Siena | 0-1 | 0-0 | −9.3 | 98.9 | 108.2 | 249 |
| 3 | Quinnipiac | 0-1 | 0-0 | −9.5 | 99.3 | 108.8 | 251 |
| 4 | Merrimack | 0-1 | 0-0 | −10.6 | 98.0 | 108.5 | 260 |
| 5 | Marist | 0-1 | 0-0 | −11.4 | 95.0 | 106.5 | 277 |
| 6 | Sacred Heart | 1-0 | 0-0 | −12.5 | 99.1 | 111.6 | 285 |
| 7 | Mount St. Mary's | 0-1 | 0-0 | −12.6 | 95.5 | 108.0 | 286 |
| 8 | Saint Peter's | 0-1 | 0-0 | −12.8 | 94.7 | 107.5 | 290 |
| 9 | Iona | 1-0 | 0-0 | −13.2 | 95.2 | 108.3 | 294 |
| 10 | Manhattan | 0-1 | 0-0 | −14.1 | 98.6 | 112.7 | 306 |
| 11 | Rider | 0-1 | 0-0 | −21.4 | 92.4 | 113.8 | 354 |
| 12 | Niagara | 0-1 | 0-0 | −22.4 | 91.0 | 113.5 | 358 |
| 13 | Canisius | 0-1 | 0-0 | −23.9 | 93.2 | 117.1 | 363 |